What happens in Libya between Turkey and France. Giuseppe Gagliano’s analysis
Several times on Start the unscrupulousness of Turkey’s political and military strategy in Libya has been underlined.
In relation to the recent developments in the Libyan military situation, it is necessary to underline how the conflict dynamics on the Libyan chessboard are increasing in complexity, especially over the control of the city of Sirte.
In fact, in the first place, Russia has tried to counter the Turkish offensive through a shrewd and limited air attack strategy using the Mig 29 and Sukhoi Su-24 with which, at the present time, it has managed to stop the Turkish advance towards the city of Sirte. This city constitutes a fundamental strategic hub not only for LNA – which could have control of the oil terminals – but equally important for Russia which – at the Ghardabiya airport and the port of Tobruk – could establish military infrastructures aimed not only at a partition Libya but above all to put in place a strategy to contain the American presence on the Mediterranean.
Precisely for this reason, as we pointed out in a previous article, the strategic partnership with the United States becomes increasingly important.
Secondly, the centrality of the city of Sirte is relevant for the projection of Egyptian power. It is no coincidence that the Egyptian president defined Sirte as a red line, a line that if crossed would justify an Egyptian military intervention and therefore a possible Turkish-Egyptian conflict. Precisely for this reason, President al Sisi could carry out an offensive to break through the Libyan border on the Tobruk side with the aim of defending the city of Sirte.
Thirdly, France will not be able to passively accept that Turkey comes to control the Libyan chessboard and Macron himself defined Turkey’s role in Libya as a real dangerous game. At the level of strategic scenario, therefore, a direct military involvement of France in an anti-Turkish function cannot be excluded.
As for our country, in addition to reiterating what was stated in a previous article, it must be remembered that the notorious Italian special envoy to Libya has not yet been seen. At this point we will ask for some light from the show “Chi lui visto” (Who has seen it).
There is no doubt that a possible military conflict, which would see Turkey, Egypt or even Russia directly involved, would not only damage Italian foreign policy in Libya in an almost definitive way – dangerously increasing the instability of the eastern Mediterranean – but the it would later force it to negotiate its presence with at least three different nations that would marginalize it in a humiliating way.
It goes without saying that the current Libyan situation is the direct consequence of the fall of Gaddafi the only leader who had managed to maintain Libya’s stability. Indeed, it would have been in our national interest to keep him in power and not help to depose him.
As Carlo Jean opportunely pointed out on these pages, “Italy has now lost all prestige, and no one takes our ministers seriously, especially that of Foreign Affairs. Unfortunately the problem is wider because it is the whole of Europe that has been cornered by Turkey and Russia who have decision-making systems and a willingness to use the military instrument in the service of diplomacy that are decidedly more brilliant than those of a Europe that from this point of view rejects the use of force on principle. “
