It will not be Marine Le Pen , it will not be Eric Zemmour , much less Jean-Luc Melenchon and his colorful leftist company who will undermine Emmanuel Macron to the point of electorally exhausting him . The most credible antagonist of the outgoing president is Valerie Pecresse , unlikely among the presidential candidates until a few weeks ago. Then, the political “miracle” suddenly manifested itself in the house of the Republicains, the post-Gaullists of Sarkozy , Fillon , Juppe– no longer presentable – where the ex-minister, surprising even his own supporters, defeated the most accredited candidates on the eve of the primaries, and imposed himself on public opinion with the strength of the ideas of the radical right and the prospect of a “quiet” presidency, capable of re-establishing equilibrium dissolved during Macron’s mandate and attentive to the demands of the middle class.
The polls, a few days after the official candidacy, give it 20%, six points less than Macron and four more than Le Pen, while Zemmour, currently quoted at 14%, tries to gain support despite the demonization fielded by the opponents, starting with the same centrists and moderates who could make use of his votes in the second round.
Zemmour, who was the absolute novelty of the electoral campaign until the Pecresse’s descent into the field, trudges respecting expectations as he has not been able or wanted to develop a convincing strategy, overlapping that of Le Pen. Two roosters in a chicken coop end up pecking each other and their compressive 30% can animate the sterile illusions of a right over which hangs the curse of not knowing how to think in unitary terms. It continues to split furiously when alone it could win the entire stake, perhaps with the help of the less centrist faction of Republicans, represented by Xavier Bernard , for example, who until recently was considered Macron’s most credible antagonist.
La Pecresse, after a brilliant political rise, seemed to have stopped in June 2019, in fact, she left Les Republicains, following the failure of the LR-LesCentristes list in the European elections and before the holding of an election for the presidency of the party for which she was considered a possible candidate. To justify her decision, she pointed out the impossibility of forming an enlarged political organization, stating that “the party is blocked from within, in its organization and in its ideas”. Many left the party. In 2021, however, she was re-elected president of the Ile-de-France region.Eric Ciotti with almost 61% of the votes benefiting from the support of all the other candidates ( Xavier Bernard , Michel Barnier , Philippe Juvin ). His program is condensed into two sentences: “Restore French pride” and “put France back in order”. In short, he acts as a counterpoint to Zemmour who may continue to gain support (a fortnight ago it was given at 10%, but after his first rally outside Paris, marred by an angry and violent protest and significantly increased in the polls) , but they will certainly not be enough to open the doors to the ballot for him.
The same goes for Le Pen at the moment, whose Rassemblement is increasingly confused and divided. It could go above 20% in the next five months, but beyond that it is difficult to go. Her passwords are worn out, worn out by repetitiveness; has watered down his program and Zemmour has appropriated the identity issues to which the traditional right has always been very sensitive, to the point that even the heirs of the Action Francaise support him as if he had left their ranks, while not a little mistrust has matured for the blond lady politically repudiated by her own family, starting with her father Jean-Marie and ending with the enterprising and cultured nephew Marion.
Many of Zemmour’s themes, from security to the dangers of Islamization, have been endorsed by Pecresse who, challenging the moderate apparatus of her party, goes to meet those classes that are fed up with the quarrels left and right, while disappointed by the Hamletic Macron they prepare to turn their backs on him.
And soon to do the math and, therefore, to hypothesize a surprise ending. What can be said is that the game is four, considering Le Pen and Zemmour as possible involuntary supporters of Pecresse in the second round. Reasonableness would indicate this outcome, but in France everyone seems to hate each other and political families are eliminated with a disconcerting ease. This time it could be different. Both the supporters of Le Pen and those of Zemmour seem to be embracing the idea, as claims, of an alliance between the two French rightists. But for now the leader of the Rassemblement National does not want to hear about it, however the real possibility of being excluded from a ballot that she considered unassailable, could mitigate her claims of her. It would be stupid to go to war on the right: the two rivals would cancel each other out, with the obvious victory of the Macron-Pecresse duo. With the possibility, far from remote, that their electorate would vote for the president of Ile-de-France, aware that the issues raised above all by Zemmour are deeply felt by public opinion and could easily grab them.
One question remains: where will Emmanuel Macron throw his hook
26% maybe enough to get to the ballot, but to win it takes a lot more. We do not believe that the pennies of approval of the mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo , supported by the socialists, or the ciphers of the survivors of the extreme left, headed by a Melenchon who is currently credited with 8%, can be useful for the outgoing president to succeed in company should it intercept them.
Paradoxically, one looks to the right at the Elysée. Hoping that the two standard bearers of change will accentuate their antagonism by benefiting Macron. But the new lady of France who still wants to embody the spirit of De Gaullewill do everything to disrupt the plans of those who already felt in competition to run the last mile towards the Elysée. Valerie Pecresse could be the surprise that no one hypothesized. Gaullist France has perhaps found who is capable of representing it.

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