The article by Pietro Romano published in Aeronautica & Difesa
In support of Ukraine since 2014 the entire West has been mobilized. Losing considerable economic resources due to the freezing of relations with Russia and even risking a military confrontation with Moscow. As a thank you, however, Kiev not only continues to flirt with China, with which it had historical relations, but recently it has found a new, uncomfortable (for the West) and cumbersome ally: Turkey. By providing both advanced technologies in sectors such as aeronautics and defense, leading roles within sensitive industries, perhaps strategic locations on the Black Sea and in Europe. A PROFITABLE HERITAGE
A substantial part of Beijing’s giant steps in military aeronautics (and not only) is due precisely to the advice and supplies of the Ukrainian industry, forged in the years of the Soviet Union and remained of high quality even afterwards. And in the footsteps of this relationship now Ankara would also like to proceed, which however would not be satisfied with the mere role of client but aims at a more organic alliance. In the sign, as Lucio Caracciolo wrote in Limes, of a strategy for which the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not care about the political orientation of the interlocutors but only cares that Turkey is at the center of the game, using the resources of others without preconceptions: whether they are American or Chinese, Arab or Israeli, European or Russian or Ukrainian, it doesn’t matter. The utility counts for his country and for himself, given the entrepreneurial dimension of the large sultan-presidential family. With a main short-term objective: 2023, the year of the presidential elections and the centenary of the Treaty of Lausanne, the “de profundis” of the Ottoman Empire. A position, therefore, potentially even more insidious for the EU and NATO. Although Kiev is not a member of NATO, Ukraine has nevertheless obtained Western weapons of absolute weight, such as the “Javelin” anti-tank missile. And the secretary general of the Atlantic Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, explained that NATO is providing aid to the Ukrainian armed forces not only in terms of the means to modernize Kiev’s equipment but also of joint training and exercises. In turn, the head of US diplomacy, Antony Blinken, apparently he has pledged to provide Ukraine free of charge in “lethal” weapons, amounting to approximately $ 125 million at the moment. Yet it is not known whether all this will be useful to the Western cause.A WIN-WIN FRIENDSHIP
Thanks to Ukraine (and Russia), China has recovered in a few years a decades-long gap with the West in the military aeronautics sector. Currently, the cooperation between Kiev and Beijing is concentrated in motorsport. Thanks to the engines supplied by the Motor Sich group, the Chinese military aviation had at its disposal a large number of advanced training (and combat) aircraft Hongdu JL-10 / L-15 (the aircraft which, through the Yak-130, and related to Leonardo’s Italian M-346, ed). And it is thanks to the engines designed by the Ivchenko-Progress group and manufactured in Ukrainian factories that China has been able to produce the Hongdu K-8 “Karakoram” basic trainer, the most successful international market of its young aviation industry. Kiev also sold the Kh-55 cruise missiles to Beijing as well as supplied the first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning (ex-Soviet Variag, see Aeronautics & Defense no. 419, September 2021, page 64). and the prototype of an aircraft capable of taking off and landing on it, the Su-27 (“Flanker D” for NATO), on the basis of which China initiated national design and production that led to the Shenyang J-15 (“Flanker-X2” for NATO). The Antonov Group’s design office also played a significant role in the Chinese program for the construction of the Shaanxi Y-8 transport aircraft and its derivatives Shaanxi Y-9 and Xian Y-20 which ensure Beijing’s ability to transfer personnel and military equipment even over long distances. Also last January Motor Sich entered into an agreement to supply over 400 turbofan engines to equip the supersonic version of the JL-10 / L-15. In spite of the severe sanctions imposed on military supplies to Beijing and the protests in Washington.THE CHINESE SIEGE
Given the difficulties China faces in developing the motor industry, it is not difficult to understand the siege on Motor Sich of the Chinese company Skyrizon Aircraft Holdings Limited, controlled by the Beijing Xinwei Technology Group, which according to the US State Department would have close contacts with the leaders of the Chinese armed forces. A siege that lasted years but crowned with success and the acquisition by Skyrizon of 75% of Motor Sich. Immediately after this operation, the new owner would transfer the Ukrainian company’s leading technologies to a new plant in China. A situation against which the US administration has risen which, last March, pushed Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky to nationalize Motor Sich “for its strategic importance for national security”. But, according to what is known to Aeronautica & Difesa, the disputes over the ownership of Motor Sich would not be over. In essence, Ukraine is afraid of losing a thriving market like China’s after severing all ties with Russia. Furthermore, Kiev has not digested Washington’s substantial green light for the direct Russia-Germany gas pipeline that cuts off Ukraine, through which the pipes currently pass, jeopardizing both the monetary rights recognized in Kiev and the security of supply of goods. gas from a country such as Russia with which it is at loggerheads. And so Motor Sich would end up on the market again. Ukraine itself would have offered Turkey 50% (and not control, therefore) of the now nationalized company. And it seems that Ankara is studying the dossier but has already given its substantial green light to the operation. At the moment, however, it is not yet known through which corporate vehicle the investment would take place. Certainly, if so, the Chinese thrown out the door would return through the window given the increasingly close relations between Ankara and Beijing.RETURN BEARING
Ukraine is historically a buffer between Turkey and Russia, a role it has returned to play in the last few decades. With the Russian annexation of Crimea, relations between Kiev and Ankara have been strengthened in the common interest of keeping Russian ambitions under control and, in the Turkish case, of expanding its sphere of influence and protecting the Turkish-speaking Tatar populations of Crimea. . An agreement that culminated in President Zelensky’s visit to Turkey last spring when Erdogan publicly expressed his support for Kiev in the disputes with Russia.
As well as on the economic-commercial level, relations between the two countries are strengthening on the industrial-military level. For now, Ankara is helping Kiev in the technological war waged by the pro-Russian separatists of the Donbass by massively and increasingly transferring technologies suitable to counter these risks. But in projection it will be the Ukrainian industry most needed by Turkey. In fact, the engines of Kiev will restart the production of the “Bayraktar” TB2 armed drones of the Turkish company Baykar stopped by the sanctions imposed after their use against the Kurdish forces in Syria and Armenians in Upper Karabakh. The Austrian Rotax (controlled by Bombardier Recreational Products, of the Bombardier group) is in fact being replaced by the Ukrainian Ivchenko-Progress. A cooperation dear to Erdogan for several reasons. Industrial: the “Bayraktar” could become a success on international markets. Politicians: this drone, which has proved very effective so far, could be not only a tool for strengthening on the military ground but also an object of para-diplomatic exchanges at an international level. Personal: his son-in-law Selcuc Bayraktar and manager of Baykar and son of the founder and number one of the company, Ozdemir Bayraktar. According to a report by Qatari television Al Jazeera, since 2018 Ukraine has begun to increasingly purchase weapons from Turkey, including armed drones. In order to verify the efficiency of the TB2 “Bayraktar” armed drones in the field, Ukrainian military observers were conducted in the areas where Azerbaijani and Armenian troops met in Nagorno-Karabakh. According to rumors, “Bayraktar” TB2 would have been deployed in the Donbass area. As in a replica of the Armenian-Azerbaijani war theater, where Russia and Turkey have already faced each other through interposed adversaries.
