Japan and India have an opposite approach to Russia: Tokyo severely sanctioned it for invading Ukraine, while New Delhi works to maintain relations. That is why
Put aside the United States and the European Union, there is a country in Asia that has introduced harsh sanctions against Russia for the invasion of Ukraine. And Japan, which has decided to proceed in this direction despite the repercussions on the energy side (it meets its fossil needs practically only with purchases from abroad, including from Moscow). JAPAN NEEDS THE WEST
But his is not an economic calculation, but a political and strategic one: as explained by the ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs and Defense Taro Kono, Tokyo today aligns itself with its Western allies because tomorrow it may need them to contain China in its own region. “To protect ourselves we must also help others”. And if China were to one day decide to invade Taiwan, it could take control of the Luzon Strait, a key crossing point for ships carrying gas to Japan. From there, the Senkaku Islands, under Japanese administration but claimed by Beijing, are not far away. INDIA NEEDS RUSSIA
There is another country, also in Asia, which is pursuing an opposite approach to that of Japan on Russia. And India, which not only has not condemned Moscow for the war but is also working on a mechanism to ensure the continuation of bilateral trade, despite the sanctions. Even in the Indian case hydrocarbons have to do with it – oil, specifically – but the reasons for the approach are deeper and sink into geopolitics. Tokyo, that is, considers the West useful for containing the Russian and, above all, Chinese threat; hence the alignment on sanctions. New Delhi, on the other hand, sees in Moscow a power necessary for Beijing’s regional balance, which it perceives as a near danger; hence his abstention from sentencing. OIL, WEAPONS AND RUPIE
India imports about 80 percent of the oil it consumes, but Russia’s share is marginal: it is worth just 2-3 percent of total purchases. Today, however, the values ​​of crude oil are high and, to save on spending, New Delhi has shown interest in the barrels offered for sale from Moscow at a discounted price. An Indian government official told Reuters that “Russia is offering oil and other commodities at a steep discount. We will be happy to accept it “. Payment could be in rupees, India’s currency – it’s a way to get around the US dollar and sanctions.
Beyond crude oil, the mechanism in rupees will mainly serve to protect transactions relating to defense equipment: in this sector the weight of Moscow is very important, because India depends on Russian military equipment for 60 percent, despite being by heavily reducing imports (-53 percent since 2011) to increase those from America. UNDERSTANDING WEST
The most geopolitically relevant datum in this whole affair is the understanding that the West is showing towards India. Not from today, actually: the United States has sanctioned Turkey for purchasing S-400 systems from Russia, but they don’t seem to want to do the same with India.
Last week Ely Ratner, US advisor for defense and Indo-Pacific affairs, said Washington recognizes “that India has a complicated history and relationship with Russia.” British Foreign Minister Liz Truss said the UK should establish closer economic and security ties with India to help reduce dependence on Russia.
Such softness is due to the fact that the United States – first of all but not only them – would like to accelerate the rise of India and make it a sort of “anti-China”, exploiting the fears of Beijing’s assertiveness in Asia. If they forced it to sever the relationship with Russia, or worse still sanction it, they would risk alienating a strategically fundamental partner, albeit reluctant to enter a formal system of alliances.
(Article published on eastwest)
