In the war between Russia and Ukraine, everyone has their own interests and even the BRICS countries are well aware of this. So that’s where Brazil, India, China and South Africa stand. Facts, comments and forecasts
“Among the countries most reluctant to slam the door in the face of officials and economic operators of the Russian Federation – Limes wrote – there are precisely those collected under the acronym Brics”, that is, in addition to Russia, Brazil, India, China and South Africa.
Here are their interests and their positions on the war in Ukraine. BRAZIL: NE (OPENLY) WITH PUTIN NE AGAINST PUTIN
Although Brazil voted in favor of the UN resolution condemning the Russian invasion, this does not mean that Jair Bolsonaro’s government is hostile to President Vladimir Putin. In fact, eight days before the outbreak of the war, analyzes the NGO Crisis Group, the Brazilian president flew to Moscow where, alongside his Russian counterpart, he said he was “in solidarity with Russia”.
This caused divisions within his government, so much so that Vice President Hamilton Mourao declared that “if Western countries drop Ukraine, then it will be Bulgaria, then the Baltic states and so on”. And he had also added: “Sanctions are useless, in the face of such an action one must respond at a military level”.
Claims that aroused the disapproval of Bolsonaro, who shortly afterwards said that Mourao did not have the authority to comment on the matter.
In fact, it does not seem possible for Brazil to openly declare itself against Russia because the economy, especially the agricultural sector, could suffer a lot. As Start wrote, the country is heavily dependent on the Bear for the import of both mineral and chemical fertilizers.
Additionally, Limes notes, the Bolsonaro government has come very close to Putin in developing its nuclear-powered submarine program. And Russia obviously has his interests too. As explained by Gianni La Bella, professor of contemporary history at the University of Modena, with the recent meeting between the two heads of state, “cooperation is also assumed in the military field […] A series of agreements have been made for which Russia will supply war material to these two countries with military training within the navy ”.
The road, therefore, that the government seems to want to pursue is that of neutrality. The Brazilian president himself said: “Brazil is against war in any case, but we want to be neutral because we believe that this is the only way to help achieve peace”. A position that earned Brazil the exclusion from the black list of nations considered hostile to the Kremlin. INDIA: I WOULD LIKE BUT CANNOT
Even India, in its non-alignment, continues to play the tightrope between Russia – its main arms supplier – and the United States, the first trading partner and new economic and strategic ally against the Chinese threat , as noted in recent days by Start Magazine.
But in addition to the import of Russian weapons, oil is also added because, as Milano Finanza recalls, since the invasion of February 24, “Putin, to ease the backlash of US and European sanctions, has offered oil at discounted prices to the government of Ways “.
According to Ugo Tramballi of Ispi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi “cannot explicitly condemn the aggression against Ukraine, as perhaps he would like”.
However, he adds that although Modi and Putin have “similar political instincts”, if India is cornered “it will have no difficulty in looking at its own interests”, namely the containment of China and therefore the choice of the West .
But in the meantime, we read on Limes, “to circumvent international sanctions on Russia, the government of Narendra Modi is considering creating an exchange system based on rubles and rupees”. SOUTH AFRICA: PARTIAL MEDIATOR
The position of South Africa is much more decisive which, although on the occasion of the UN resolution against the Russian invasion, merely abstained, recalls Limes that its president, Cyril Ramaphosa, “accused NATO of war in Ukraine, pointing out that it will resist any appeal to condemn Russia ”. Perhaps also due to the intense trade exchanges between the two countries which, according to ISPI, amounted to 981 million dollars in 2020.
According to the NGO Crisis Group, “South Africa is likely to continue to support the talks”, reducing “the public condemnation of Moscow to a minimum”. CHINA: THE TRUE WINNER OF THE WAR
China, one of Russia’s main allies, has played the role of mediator right from the start, but as stated in Sole24Ore, his position “is quite complex”. On the one hand there is “the need to abandon the Cold War mentality” and on the other the clear rejection of Western sanctions considered “unilateral and illegal”.
As Beijing Foreign Minister Wang Yi said: “China encourages all diplomatic efforts and direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, and urges the UN Security Council to play a constructive role in resolving the crisis in Ukraine. “. Yi then added: “Time will show that China’s position is on the right side of history.”
A position that according to Andrea Graziosi, professor of contemporary history at the Federico II University of Naples, will lead Beijing “to become a center of power while the West as we know it and at sunset and Moscow will fail in its attempt to establish itself”.
