Baradar will be the new Taliban leader in Kabul, but he is under the authority of Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada. Giuseppe Gagliano
Abdul Ghani Baradar’s analysis is a very interesting character. He was born and raised in Kandahar. This is where the Taliban began in 1994, occupying the city almost without a fight, then, equipped with tanks, heavy weapons and a lot of money to bribe local commanders, they kidnapped Kabul almost 25 years ago, on September 27, 1996.
Previously, the Mullah Baradar had fought in the 1980s jihad against the USSR, and perhaps – this is not confirmed – alongside Mullah Omar, with whom he co-founded the Taliban.
After the bombing and US occupation after 9/11, Mullah Baradar and a small group of Taliban sent a proposal to then-President Hamid Karzai regarding a potential deal that would allow the Taliban to recognize the new regime. . Karzai, under pressure from Washington, rejected him.
Baradar was effectively arrested in Pakistan in 2010 and held in detention. American intervention led to his release in 2018. He then settled in Qatar. And it was there that he was appointed head of the Taliban’s political bureau and oversaw the signing of the US withdrawal agreement last year.
Baradar will be the new leader in Kabul, but it is important to note that he is under the authority of the supreme leader of the Taliban since 2016, Haibatullah Akhundzada who reigns supreme over the new incarnation of the Islamic emirate of Afghanistan. THE COLLAPSE OF THE AFGHAN ARMY
The collapse of the Afghan National Army (ANA) was inevitable. It was as “educated” as the US military: massive technology, enormous air power, almost zero local intelligence on the ground.
The Taliban, meanwhile, rely on agreements with tribal elders and extensive family ties, as well as a peasant guerrilla approach, parallel to that of the Communists in Vietnam. They’ve been biding their time for years, building relationships – and sleeping cells.
Afghan troops who had not received a salary for months were paid not to fight them. And the fact that they have not attacked American troops since February 2020 has earned them further respect – a matter of honor, central to the Pashtunwali code. UNDERSTANDING THE TALEBANS
It is impossible to understand the Taliban – and especially the Pashtun universe – without understanding Pashtunwali. In addition to the notions of honor, hospitality and inevitable revenge for any wrongdoing, the concept of freedom implies that no Pashtun is inclined to take orders from a central state authority – in this case, Kabul.
Simply put, this is the “secret” of lightning-fast and minimal blood loss embedded in the global geopolitical earthquake. After Vietnam, it is the second protagonist of the South that shows the whole world how an empire can be defeated by an army of peasant guerrillas.
And all this on a budget of no more than $ 1.5 billion a year – from local taxes, profits from opium exports (no internal distribution allowed) and real estate speculation. In large areas of Afghanistan, the Taliban already effectively controlled local security, local courts and even food distribution.
The Taliban of 2021 is a completely different animal to those of 2001. Not only are they battle-hardened, but they’ve had plenty of time to hone their diplomatic skills. THE SCENARIOS
The indoor unit, however, will be extremely difficult to reach. The Afghan tribal labyrinth is an almost impossible puzzle to solve. What the Taliban can realistically achieve is a free confederation of tribes and ethnic groups under the leadership of a Taliban emir, coupled with very careful management of social relations. THE UNITED STATES
Tony Blinken can say that “we were in Afghanistan for one primary goal: to take care of the people who attacked us on 9/11”.
Any serious analyst knows that the “main” geopolitical goal of the bombing and occupation of Afghanistan nearly 20 years ago was to establish an essential anchor of the Empire through military infrastructure between Central Asia and South Asia. .
Today the “loss” of Afghanistan must be interpreted as a repositioning. It is part of the new geopolitical configuration, where the Pentagon’s main mission is no longer the “war on terror”, but the simultaneous attempt to isolate Russia and implement a policy of encirclement towards China. IRAN
Iran is about to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a full member and this will bring about another important change. Even before resettling the Islamic Emirate, the Taliban carefully cultivated good relations with key players in Eurasia: Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran and Central Asian states. The latter are under the full protection of Russia. Beijing is already planning important rare earth deals with the Taliban.
So here is the new possible scapegoat: the new axis of evil, namely the Taliban-Pakistan-China axis. The new big game in Eurasia could start again.

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