All the effects of the vote in Germany. An in-depth analysis by Pierluigi Mennitti from Berlin
Two weeks after the vote in Germany, many changes have taken place on the political scene, helping to clarify the framework in which the parties will operate in the coming months. The 2021 elections will be remembered as a moment of caesura in the history of the Bundesrepublik. The electoral data closed the long phase of governments chaired by Angela Merkel and opened a whole new one whose contours are now beginning to be outlined. THE CRISIS OF THE MASS PARTIES
The first element that emerged in the aftermath of the vote was the leading role of what were once considered minor parties, political forces destined to play the role of supporting actors alongside the two large mass parties, CDU and SPD. A cook and two waiters, it was the rule of the past, already broken by the Grosse Koalition, for necessity that has become a rule and no longer an exception. This time there was a further step forward: the balance of power has rebalanced, the large parties are no longer large (both oscillate around 25%) and the small ones have now passed the double-digit threshold. And so it was Greens and liberals who took the initiative for the new government, first starting consultations between them and then deciding with which of the two major parties to start negotiations.THE RETURN OF SOCIAL LIBERISM IN GREEN SAUCE
The choice fell without too many surprises on Olaf Scholz, architect of a real electoral miracle. On the other hand, the chancellor in pectore had only to do what he had done in the last month of the election campaign: wait. Wait for the showdown in the CDU camp to begin and for rival Armin Laschet to be dragged into the maelstrom of internal claims. The indiscretions leaked to Bild by his entourage after the confidential meetings with liberals and the Greens, in spite of the required discretion, irritated the two parties and tipped the scales towards the SPD, suddenly more solid and reliable.
Now the ball has been handed over to Scholz and the Social Democrat leader has every interest in hurrying up. He will have to recall all his renowned pragmatism to find the point of fusion with a liberal party quite different from the one that in 1969 Walter Scheel dragged from the historic alliance with the conservatives to that with the social democrats of Willy Brandt. On two points, the liberal Christian Lindner does not seem to want to give in: the relaxation of the debt ceiling rule and the increase in taxes. Fdp general secretary Volker Wissing, who has become a central figure in the negotiations, told Bild that he expected rough discussions on public finance issues in the coming weeks.
And the same hot front that the Greens are preparing for, with co-president Robert Habeck who seems to have stolen the show from candidate Annalena Baerbock after the half disappointment of the vote. Although climate protection issues are at the heart of the ecological agenda, the Grunens are aware that the entire scaffolding of their program passes through the bottlenecks of financial policy. And the Greens are also promising a battle on taxes and debts. NEW GOVERNMENT IN RELATIVELY SHORT TIME
It will not therefore be a downward negotiation, despite the fact that voters show majority approval in the polls for the Semaforo coalition, rather than for the Jamaica alternative that would put the CDU back into play. On the eve of the three-way negotiation, optimism prevails. Olaf Scholz also has the choice of many institutional positions to put on the table, starting with that of the federal president who will be renewed in four months (at the moment and occupied by the Spd Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who for his part would not disdain a second round ).
Analysts are now convinced that, despite the complexity of the agreement to be reached, the new German government (a modernized social liberalism in green sauce) will be able to see the light sooner than expected. Those in Italy who imagine a reshuffling of European equilibrium thanks to a long vacuum in German politics should take this into account. HELP FROM BERLIN
A hand to the efforts at national level could also come from the parallel negotiations taking place in Berlin for the new city administration. In the capital there was also a vote for the renewal of the city’s Senate and here too a Social Democrat exponent succeeded in the miracle of an unexpected comeback. Franziska Giffey, former minister, member of the moderate wing of the party, would like to do away with the red-red-vedre alliance that she has governed in recent years. In her heart there would be a coalition more shifted to the right, with liberals and maybe even the CDU, but she would also be content with marking the path for Scholz by working on a Semaphore government for the capital as well.
It would thus give the signal of a more programmatic turning point in German politics, an alliance destined to govern on several levels and not just stand up for lack of alternatives. ACCOUNTS IN THE CDU-CSU
To believe that the Union can re-enter the game through the Jamaica coalition, not even Armin Laschet remained, who had linked his political survival to this hypothesis. Post-Merkel looks very different from what the same exponents of the two Christian Democratic groups had imagined. Rather than dividing the spoils of an inheritance, it is now a question of rebuilding the foundations of a party, for too long crushed on the bulky figure of the chancellor.
Laschet had to go back a long way, to the point of promising resignations in installments, in the hope of being able to govern the process of succession. Which in the end was not even successful for Angela Merkel.
The party is in fibrillation, everyone seems to be running on their own, the Bavarian CSU, the so-called economic wing, Friedrich Merz, the youth organization, the regional federations. Faced with the claims of the losers of the latest challenges (Friedrich Merz, Markus Soder) the temptation to make a real generational leap advances. Two big names, Annegrett Kramp-Karrenbauer and Peter Atlmaier, have given up their parliamentary mandates to give the green light to the second on the list, two young people. Jens Spahn, the Minister of Health, who until recently was considered the man on whom the party would have done better to aim for after Merkel, plays on the desire for a renewal of faces and men. But the management of the pandemic, in the end, also dented his star a bit.
