The uncertainty and the disease of our times, certainly not only in Italy: the planet is at risk for the climate, at risk for peace due to international tensions, and at risk for the welfare state due to aging, and at risk for work for the new technologies, and at the risk of identity due to globalization, and so on. In Italy we add an endemic lack of economic growth that exacerbates social unrest and jeopardizes the sustainability of our public debt.
All this has led, certainly not only in Italy, to populisms of all kinds, extreme polarizations and, in general, to ever greater social instability.
Covid-19 has triggered further uncertainties both health and economic and accelerated the changes already underway: just think of the pervasive digitization in all fields that is upsetting almost all sectors: banking is just one example.
The combination of all these uncertainties causes fear of the future in a growing portion of our community.
In a few months, some factors postponed so far could exacerbate the economic and social situation: the end of credit moratoriums, the release of layoffs, the progressive depletion of reserves in many companies and savings in many families (and we hope that no crisis of our sovereign debt or an uncontrolled resurgence of contagion or some international crisis).
If we do not rebuild trust quickly we will run very serious risks: history tells us what happens when social fear “gets out of hand”. Extreme reactions are by no means to be ruled out.
To rebuild trust and unleash the many Italian energies we must act with great decision both with a short and medium term perspective, both at national and community level. With concrete actions that are quickly tangible and with projects that are worth committing to in the medium term. The responsible involvement of citizens and businesses will be a determining factor in achieving very ambitious goals, but which we can, in my opinion, consider within our reach:
1. We accelerate vaccinations by mobilizing all public, private and military structures in the country. We are the first to achieve full coverage of the entire population in record time and structurally equip ourselves to manage future epidemics, Covid will certainly not be the last. We use the resources of the Mes to equip ourselves with adequate real estate and technological structures throughout Italy, with a much higher capacity than the current one for collecting and managing epidemiological data and an efficient and always functioning test & tracing capacity of present and future epidemics. That is, we drastically reduce the risk of future lockdowns that are as devastating as they are insufficient.
2. We relaunch sustained and sustainable economic growth by using, wherever possible, effective and immediately activable laws (that do not need countless implementing decrees), with extraordinary decision-making tools and at the same time making our Public Administration responsible. To reactivate sustained and sustainable growth in a short time, you cannot get lost in a thousand streams, but it is necessary to focus on some priorities:
• Unleash the energies of companies that can drive the recovery by fiscally and structurally rewarding companies that invest in innovation and in human capital, which are strengthened in terms of assets and dimensions. Read such as Industry 4.0, Apprenticeship, Ace have already proved their effectiveness.
• Realize in accelerated times – also thanks to extraordinary authorization and executive procedures – new strategic physical, digital, energy and territorial defense infrastructures and ensure the maintenance of existing ones.
• Ensure that the sectors most affected by the crisis – tourism, culture, sport and transport at the top of the list – are put in a position to survive and can take advantage of this historic opportunity to carry out the necessary restructuring (eg modernization and aggregation of the tourist offer ).
3. We transform four of our current structural weaknesses into accelerators of sustainable development by initiating the four key reforms: Education, Justice, Bureaucracy and Welfare. In each of these fields, one should immediately dedicate oneself to the necessary and urgent interventions (some might deny that more professional and technological resources are needed for the justice system
) while, in parallel, one could dedicate oneself to building consensus on more “ideological” and divisive.
The resources to be allocated to these 4 + 4 strategic priorities (vaccinations and strengthening of health, incentives for strong businesses, infrastructures, support to the most affected strategic sectors and education reform, justice reform, bureaucracy reform, welfare reform) to restart growth and redesign our country are available in unrepeatable quantities: in the next 5 years between 400 and 500 billion could be destined for these purposes by adding up both national and EU funds. And woe to not use them all: the “good” debt must never be scary!
In this context, the role of Europe will be increasingly fundamental. We need to put a European booster on the National Recovery and Resilience Plans. Massive “federal investments” (4-5 trillion Euros) are needed in common physical and digital infrastructures, in large research projects, innovation and energy transition, in the completion of the most important single markets if we want the EU not to be a crock pot between the great global technological powers. When I speak of “federal investments” I am not referring to new national programs financed by European funds, but to investments selected, managed and financed at European level. The customs clearance of Eurobonds could already give a great boost to the European project in 2021 and Italy, if it proves serious at home, will be able to play a leading role.
Finally, the next G20, where Italy could also be a positive driver, offers us an opportunity not to be missed to start overcoming the situation of substantial GZero in which we have ended up in the last few years.
2021, in a nutshell, can be a year of positive turning point, but we must not underestimate the risks that are accumulating.
