First Russia, then China, now India and Turkey; the old imperial nations seem to have returned to protagonists in international relations
As reported by Foreign Policy magazine, last Monday the military leaders of China and India met for the seventh round of negotiations, aimed at allaying tensions along the border between the two Asian giants , the so-called Effective Line of Control, which has already been the site of violent clashes over the last few months.
No official statements have been released, but the news that has transpired does not seem particularly positive, in light of the irreconcilable positions between the two countries and the decision not to reduce their respective military presence along the Line.
However, it is encouraging to note that after the sixth round of negotiations held on September 22, China and India issued a joint statement, under which they pledged to avoid an escalation, making a commitment to “stop sending additional troops, refrain from any unilateral change of the situation on the ground and avoid any action that could complicate the situation “(here the link to the official press release).
Obviously, the United States did not wait and, through the words of Secretary of State Pompeo and National Security Advisor O’Brien, they secured support for New Delhi, threatening – albeit indirectly – China, accused of being the architect of the escalation of tensions.
Some food for thought emerges from the tensions between China and India. CHINA
Xi Jinping’s China has completely changed its attitude in terms of international relations, becoming more and more assertive and aggressive. The reasons are easily explained: it is the largest country in the world by population, and the second economy in the world (and soon, it will become the first) with a growth that has not reduced even in times of pandemic, has scored some hits important diplomats, such as the agreement with the Vatican and the Belt and Road Initiative, which also saw the accession of Italy.
However, this new Chinese muscle stance is likely to do more harm than good.
In fact, China is historically the main regional power in South East Asia, so China’s neighbors have historically feared their mighty neighbor and the Chinese awakening is coinciding with the awakening of concerns from countries such as Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand. . The more aggressive China becomes, the more these countries will be forced to ally with the United States, as a protection from Beijing.
On the other hand, Australia and Japan have already clearly expressed their concerns and strengthened their relations with Uncle Sam. China thus risks being isolated and surrounded by hostile countries. INDIA
The other Asian giant seems to be playing a game of remittance, awaits China’s moves and has no choice but to remain an ally of the United States (at least until its economy, much more fragile than China’s, will allow it greater autonomy ). However, it should not be overlooked that this is a huge country with a young and growing population equipped with nuclear weapons.
The size of the two nations, in fact, could allow them to pay a price in terms of human lives which, on the other hand, could not even be considered in the least by other countries. This could give rise to bad ideas in their politico-military leaders.
Therefore, a confrontation between the only two countries in the world with more than one billion inhabitants, both equipped with nuclear weapons, should be avoided at all costs, the price would be intolerable. IN THE REST OF THE WORLD
The escalation of tensions between China and India leads us to reflect on a fact of recent years: the return of the imperial nations. First Russia, then China, now India and increasingly Turkey; the old imperial nations seem to have returned to protagonists in international relations.
On the other hand, even in Europe we are witnessing a return to a unilateral power policy by the United Kingdom (see the exit from the EU) and, in part, by France, which with Macron seems to have dusted off the old De Gaulle’s plan to use the European dimension to assert French power.
In the words of De Gaulle, France would have acted as a “jockey” while Germany would have had the role of the “horse”; however, it seems difficult for Berlin to accept this plan willingly, in light of the changed balance of power between the two countries (both in terms of population and in terms of economy) and the greater weight exerted by Germany within the EU.
In this context, the EU will succeed in creating an autonomous foreign policy
In any case, the above can only worry.
In fact, the ideas and aspirations that appeared dominant until a few years ago seem to have been set aside: multilateralism, protection of human rights, the supremacy of democracy, the search for peace agreements. Realpolitik and the balance of power seem to be the only factors that matter in international relations. Unfortunately, tomorrow’s world looks more and more like yesterday’s world.
