The Italian economy “from the spring with the gradual improvement of the health framework should regain” vigor “after the slowdown in recent months due to infections. This was stated by the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, at the Parma Forex GDP growth “would approach 4% on average this year and then slow down in the next two”.
“The marked recovery of the economy– says Visco – was decisive in stopping the increase in the ratio between public debt and product, which at the end of 2021 could have dropped to values ​​close to 150 percent (from about 156 percent reached in 2020) “. “at a much lower level than expected at the beginning of last year and also at the official assessments published in the autumn”, he noted, underlining the importance “of growth for the decline in debt. In the presence of a better than expected primary balance but still largely in deficit, the decrease in the debt burden compared to 2020 reflected the strong difference, negative for more than 5 percentage points, between the average interest burden and the nominal growth of the economy, the Governor explained. “This result, despite thethe importance of economic growth for the pursuit of a gradual reduction in the debt burden “. The budget maneuver determines an increase in net debt, compared to the framework under current legislation, of approximately 1.3 per cent of GDP in average per year in the three-year period 2022-24. In a phase still characterized by high uncertainty about the developments of the pandemic, an expansionary maneuver was deemed necessary to contain the risk that a premature reduction of the fiscal stimulus could have a negative impact on the potential for growth”.
The governor of the Bank of Italy welcomes targeted interventions on expensive bills or on individual sectors in difficultybut he says no to general “generalized stimulus” measures that would determine tensions on prices and risks “for the balance of public accounts”. Speaking to Assiom Forex he explained how ” limited interventions of an emergency naturethey can still find justification, for example to deal with the energy crisis or in cases where infections continue to hinder consumption and production, such as in services related to tourism, catering, leisure “. fossil sources, necessary in responding to the epochal challenge of climate change, must not occur in an uncontrolled way: they can be dosed through appropriate measures, for example as part of an appropriate tariff policy “, added Visco. “However, this points out the importance of quickly defining a strategy, particularly at a European level, which considers the problem of diversifying energy sources, their storage andItalian banks , says the Governor, have a solid balance sheet overall and credit quality has continued to improve, even benefiting from the support measures “. However, he warns,” however, cases of fragility remain mainly in medium-sized banks. small and with a traditional business model “. And he stresses that for some banks, the supervision required” to evaluate in a timely manner every option aimed at preventing deterioration and returning to paths of full sustainability “.
The unexpected increase in inflation recorded in the euro areain recent months and largely the consequence of a supply shock. If there are no spirals between prices and wages and if expectations remain firmly anchored to the ECB’s inflation target, as is currently the case, the effect of energy price increases will be largely reabsorbed in 2023 “.” ‘L The orientation of monetary policy – he adds – remains however expansive, even if the gradual normalization will continue at a pace consistent with the recovery of the economy “.” In any case, it will be crucial that the decisions are progressive and well considered, also in order create uncertainties that could destabilize financial markets and economic recovery “.

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