Turkey tries to find a balance between its economic relations with Ukraine and political cooperation with Putin. Qatar, on the other hand, admits that it is unable to replace Russian gas. All the details
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, said yesterday that Turkey does not recognize statements that undermine Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
The reference and the moves of Russia, which first formally recognized the independence of the self-proclaimed separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, and then sent troops to these two territories – located in eastern Ukraine, in the Donbass region – to conduct a ” peace mission “. The United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom have imposed sanctions on Moscow, and could introduce new ones if the Kremlin were to order a more extensive military operation on Ukrainian soil. TURKEY BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE
Turkey is opposed to sanctions in principle and has good relations with both Ukraine and Russia: it borders both in the Black Sea. Ankara is a NATO member, the alliance that Moscow would like to remove from its borders, preventing may Kiev one day join it.
In the phone call with Putin, Erdogan said that a war between Russia and Ukraine would lead to disadvantages for everyone and again offered himself as a mediator to ease tensions. The Turkish president also recognized the importance of collaboration with the Kremlin on many regional dossiers, showing himself open to a continuation of relations.
Despite being or having found themselves on opposing fronts – for example in Libya, in Syria and in the clash between Armenia and Azerbaijan -, Turkey and Russia have an interest in coordinating on the management of conflicts in the areas of common projection. Their relationship is complicated, which cannot be defined as an alliance but which has existed for years. There are energy and defense contacts between Ankara and Moscow: the Turks are big buyers of Russian gas and have equipped themselves with the S-400 anti-aircraft system (an unwelcome move by the United States, NATO leader).
On the other hand, Turkey has no intention of giving up good relations with Ukraine, which is also an important customer of its Bayraktar TB2 drones: it uses them in the conflict in Donbass against the separatists supported by Moscow. Recently Ankara and Kiev signed a free trade agreement: in the first nine months of 2021, bilateral trade reached 5 billion dollars; the new treaty should push it even higher, over 10 billion a year. WHAT (NOT) QATAR CAN DO
In the event that, as a result of the fighting in Ukraine or in retaliation against sanctions imposed by the West, Russia should limit or interrupt gas supplies to Europe, Qatar could compensate for the decline in flows with its liquefied gas. And the plan that the United States has developed to ensure that the energy needs of its European allies are met, also involving Japan.
However, Qatar will not be able to replace Russia. And the country’s energy minister himself, Saad al-Kaabi, to say so. On the one hand, neither Doha nor any other single country has a sufficient supply of liquefied gas to completely replace Russian volumes. On the other hand, most of the liquefied gas that Qatar uses for export is bound by long-term contracts with Asian buyers (mainly); as a result, only 10-15 percent of Qatar’s fuel can be sent to Europe.
Qatari exports, however, are suffering from the interruption of the activities of two liquefaction trains, which will further limit the availability of gas that the country will be able to allocate to the Old Continent.
