After an initial attempt to recover, Telecom returns to the bottom of the list again (-6.66% to 0.27 euros) still following the sales trail of the eve of the day. Equita Sim reduced the target price on the stock from € 0.48 to € 0.4, confirming the hold recommendation. “The guidance was a very negative surprise, in particular on 2022, but the impression of the call is that at least it is a very prudent level and that the CEO has taken time to start the relaunch of the company, which goes from major capex and opex, to set up vertical separation by negotiating with the various counterparties and to communicate some options, for example renegotiating with Dazn or seizing opportunities from the PNRR “, explain the analysts. The sim also lowered its estimates by 4-5% on revenues and 16-15% on EBITDA. ”
Banca Akros also cut its target price to € 0.40 from the previous € 0.51 based on the scenario analysis, underlining that payments and fees can change from day to day. “The content and tone of the conference call were decidedly disappointing, as management struggled to answer many of the legitimate questions and concerns of the attendees,” commented from Banca Akros. “We are aware that the CEO and CFO have recently arrived and that there have been several major events in recent months, however, investor concerns about the company’s strategy and financial outlook have resulted in another double drop in the price. of the shares, “added the bank.
Akros analysts believe that the EBITDA, with its implicit decline of 15/20% in 2022, is difficult to square in light of the recent indicative performance indicators (not bad even in the fourth quarter) and given that the Dazn impact is was partially anticipated in last year’s results. “We hardly accept the justification based on the unrepeatable positive rumors in 2021 that will not materialize this year, while the impact of the new telecoms law is not entirely clear. We note that the section on potential corporate action is vague, as the management is still studying the best options to create value from the separation of the network “, explained the broker, who regarding Inwit for example, believes that Tim should be able to get a good price (€ 10.75 per share) by selling 41% of his stake, relative to 51%, in the holding company Daphne3 (which in turn owns 30% of Inwit) to the joint venture venture of Ardian. Tim could thus collect about 1.3 billion euros. Regarding Kkr, the offer is mentioned in the press release and the consultants’ assessment of the expression of interest by the German company will be finalized shortly.
The release of the fourth quarter financial results of the year and disappointing guidelines for the current year and 2024 trigger a drastic and downward preliminary revision of estimates. Akros cut its 2024 EBITDA estimate by nearly 20%, defining in its baseline the likelihood that Kkr’s supply is now at a low level but that there will be no increase on the proposal. The fund may decide to withdraw or enter hostile territory, in this case with a 50% upside on the current share price.
From his Intesa Sanpaolo, he believes that the new management, with the CEO Pietro Labriola and the CFO Adrian Calaza, are committed to unlocking the value of the assets. However, even if during yesterday’s conference call they declared that the next three months will be crucial to give greater visibility to the ongoing restructuring process, looking at the talks with Open Fiber, the Nrrp tenders, the renegotiations with Dazn, the sale of Inwit , analysts believe the conference failed to alleviate disappointment related to last year’s financial results, poor leadership and lack of dividend payouts. (All rights reserved)
