Russia-Ukraine War: Facts, Comments and Scenarios According to Limes’ Scientific Advisor, Germano Dottori
A war out of the history books. This is what we have been witnessing since February 24, 2022, when Russia invaded Ukrainian territory . An escalation that has not been slowed down by the negotiation rounds and which risks extending well beyond the borders of Ukraine. Germano Dottori: “Unpredictable situation”
“We are now in a stalemate that can end unpredictably at any time and, at the same time, can head in one direction or another – said Germano Dottori, scientific advisor of Limes, during the program “Piazza Pulita” on LA 7 -. We absolutely cannot make more accurate predictions. And in any case, even if Russia wins the conflict in Ukraine this does not mean that its problems in relations with the West are solved, on the contrary ”. Risk of an international conflict
The greatest fear of prof. Doctors and that the Ukrainian conflict turns into an international war. “My only concern, but it is a very strong concern, is that, in an attempt to fuel or make the Russian advance more costly, the risk of the conflict becoming international will materialize– added Dottori during the transmission of Corrado Formigli -. At that point, we can no longer rule out our involvement or the Russian side’s use of weapons of mass destruction ”. Article 5: threat or defense for European countries
In reality, the enlargement of the conflict is already underway, on the one hand due to the involvement of Belarus and on the other because Europe has begun to provide military aid to Ukraine. “Italy will supply counter-tank and anti-aircraft weapons – said Dottori recently in an interview with“ Il Giornale ”-. But other countries could also make warplanes available. It is now important that the latter do not conduct missions from the territory of NATO countries, because at that point Russian attacks on the station bases could not be excluded. If this were the case, it would enter the sphere of article 5 of the Atlantic Pact , the one relating to collective defense. A lot of caution will be needed “.
The scenario that worries me the most. Polish aircraft to the Ukrainians, taking off from airports located in Poland. Russian reaction. Article 5 of the Atlantic Pact. Great war. The Italian government knows this. And for this he tries to moderate the thrust. pic.twitter.com/cahJr7VGXg
– Germano Dottori (@GermanoDottori) March 8, 2022 The limits not to be exceeded
The countries of the Atlantic bloc are paying close attention to measuring the military aid sent to Ukraine. ” The same question of the limit that we do not want to exceed always returns because we are giving the Ukrainians weapons, and not even a few, we are seeing it from the losses that the Ukrainians are inflicting on the Russian forces – underlined Dottori during Linea Notte on Rai 3 -. Anti-aircraft weapons are hitting. If this were not enough, as it seems to be emerging, what else do we want to give Why, unlike monaco 1938, nuclear weapons existand they are the factor that prevented the West from helping the Hungarians in 1956 and the Czechoslovakians in the Prague spring. Hiding this doesn’t help. I am of the opinion that providing small arms systems, usable by individuals is one thing, moving to complex weapons systems such as airplanes is another, raises the threshold for involvement ”.
I repeat. We must be clear about the point beyond which we do not want to push ourselves into this crisis pic.twitter.com/wGOo95arCD
– Germano Dottori (@GermanoDottori) March 8, 2022 Use of nuclear weapons: a remote but concrete danger
Yesterday the foreign minister of Moscow, Sergei Lavrov, met with his Ukrainian counterpart Kuleba, a summit that ended with a stalemate. On the sidelines of the summit, the Moscow foreign minister said that Russia did not attack Ukraine but that ” in Ukraine a threatening situation has arisen for Moscow , we have made various appeals but no one has listened to us” and “Ukraine he had plans to attack the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk this month ”. These positions, which contradict the reality of the facts, worry Limes’ analyst not a little. “ Today Lavrov said something very important , he spoke of a struggle that Russia is waging to avoid being erased from the geographical map – concludes Dottori a La 7-. This thing struck me because it is the classichypothesis of use of nuclear weapons : when the survival of the state is in danger then the use of atomic weapons is conceivable. This thing worries me a lot. In my life, I am almost 58 years old, I have never felt this risk closer to me. Although it is remote, it is there.
