The market looks to Banco Bpm and Bper Banca, up respectively by 3.25% to 3.051 euros and by 1.36% to 2.081 euros on the stock exchange this morning, after Unicredit announced that the negotiations with the Treasury to re-privatize Mps they closed without success. The government will now try to agree with Brussels on an extension of the deadline set for the reprivatization of Monte. Banco Bpm and Bper Banca are among those banks that could examine the Mps dossier.
In particular, for Banco Bpm, an operation with Monte would allow it to strengthen growth as the third Italian banking center and to protect itself from hostile offers, potentially including that of Unicredit itself. But the ceo of Banco Bpm, Giuseppe Castagna, has repeatedly reiterated the lack of appeal of an operation with MPS due to its large size and its non-ideal geographical footprint.
According to an analyst, from a purely industrial point of view, a Unicredit-Banco Bpm or Banco Bpm-Bper Banca operation would be preferable. The latter will publish its third quarter results on November 5th. Equita Sim expects a trend in terms of net interest income consistent with what has been observed in previous quarters, without particular discontinuity in terms of volumes and interest rates and with the excess liquidity that will continue to represent a brake.
On the contrary, SIM believes that the third quarter could be an excellent quarter in front of commissions thanks both to the continuation of the growth trend of indirect deposits (supported by a positive trend in the markets and the commercial drive to convert deposits in deposit) and to the progressive normalization of transactional commissions. Also in the third quarter, with the measures to support the economy still in place, Equita believes that the cost of the underlying risk remained at extremely low levels, while the reported cost of risk should be higher.
More specifically, in the third quarter the interest margin is expected to reach € 390 million (+ 1% quarter on quarter) thanks to the full effect of the consolidation of the former Intesa Sanpaolo branches over the entire quarter. Total income is seen at 855 million, slightly higher than the guidance of 850 million per quarter indicated by the bank, with fees at 415 million (+ 2% quarter on quarter, despite the unfavorable seasonality).
Instead, the operating profit is estimated at 317 million (+ 15% quarter on quarter) with cost / income at 63%, benefiting from the positive seasonality on personnel costs. Provisions for credit losses are expected at 131 million with a cost of risk of 68bps consistent with the guidance of around 70bps and net profit at 79 million, including systemic charges of 70 million.
Also reflecting the trends expected for the sector, Equita raised Bper Banca’s reported net profit for 2021 by + 3%, mainly to reflect higher fees and profits from trading, which offset a slightly lower interest margin. Estimates, specified the SIM, which do not currently include the cost (estimated in the area of ​​150-180 million) relating to the loss of personnel for approximately 1,700 units, approved by the board of directors pending the completion of the trade union procedure, which the bank expects to be able to spend in the fourth quarter.
Pending the new industrial plan, Equita only marginally raised its 2022-2023 estimates (+ 1% on average), with a lower interest margin entirely offset by higher fees and lower cost of risk. Equita’s target price on Bper rises by + 4% to 2.3 euros (price / profit multiple of 7.9 times in 2022, price / tangible capital of 0.5 times, adjusted Rote of 6.5%). “We confirm the hold rating given the limited fundamental upside, the need to have greater visibility on the dynamics of revenues, especially on the interest margin front, and on the consolidation process of the former Ubi / Intesa Sanpaolo branches”, concluded Equita. (All rights reserved)
