The new Intesa Sanpaolo plan will be “standalone. I do not see opportunities for crossborder growth also because there are limitations of resistance on the part of individual countries”. This was said this morning by Carlo Messina, CEO of Intesa Sanpaolo, to Class Cnbc. “Then”, added the manager, “also because with digital the branches will be less central. I don’t see opportunities for us in this sense because we are not interested in a growth of branches”, Messina added.
The bank yesterday published the quarterly report, which reached a profit of nearly one billion and today the stock remains depressed, it drops 1.5% to € 2.46 per share with the Ftse Mib up by 0.32%. Yesterday Messina had explained, during the conference call with the press, not to fear the arrival of foreign banks (see the Spanish BBVA) only on the digital front, because “the customer who invests has a personal relationship with his bank , of trust and hardly abandon it for a technological operator “.
As the Mediobanca Securities analysts recall (neutral judgment, target price at 2.4 euros), the stock deals at book value, once the P / TE ratio, which corresponds to 8% of return (Rote), or 12 times the price / earnings ratio, “already incorporating a double-digit premium compared to the sector”. And perhaps this is the reason why the market is taking profit after the accounts.
Equita Sim today raised the target price on Intesa Sanpaolo by 3% to 2.9 euros, confirming the buy recommendation. Analysts cite higher-than-expected third-quarter results, with asset quality improving further. Experts raised their 2021 net profit estimates by 5% to 4.7 billion euros thanks to “higher commissions, trading profits and the contribution from the sale of Ubi’s merchant acquiring”,
while keeping “the cost of risk essentially unchanged. to 102 basis points implicit on the fourth quarter, calculating an acceleration of the derisking process “on NPLs at the end of the year.
According to Equita, Intesa Sanpaolo is the bank with the greatest positive exposure in the event of a rate hike. The Milanese SIM calculates that for every 100 basis points (+ 1%) of the Euribor increase there are 2.3 billion more interest margins (Net Interest Income) per year. And it is no coincidence that today the CEO Messina said, during an interview with Class Cnbc, that “a rate hike at the end of 2022 does not have to be a bad thing”. If there is visible inflation, “central banks will be able to work for a rise in interest rates which is not a negative component, especially for banks. Everything must be looked at with serenity, taking into account that the next few years will be one of growth for both ‘Italy than for Europe “, Messina added.
Mediobanca underlined, in its post-accounts comment, a lower cost of risk, better-than-expected commissions, lower provisions for 47 basis points compared to 59 of expectations and risk-weighted assets (Rwa) down 0.5% year over year. The NPE ratio is down by 3.9% thanks to the sale of the UTPs, while on the moratorium front, the loans protected by the State for over 1 billion euros are down on the previous quarter. Npls fell by 5.5% compared to three months earlier, the NPE ratio down by 22 basis points and down to 3.9%. Coverage, despite the disposals, rose by 23 basis points to 49.9%.
Level 1 and 2 loans were flat quarter-on-quarter, “despite an increase of 2.5 billion in government-guaranteed loans issued in the July-September period, for a total of 42 billion euros”.
For Nicola de Caro, Senior Vice President, Global Financial Institutions, DBRS Morningstar, Intesa reported “solid results in the first nine months of 2021 benefiting from higher net commissions, good cost control and lower loan loss provisions”. The risks associated with Covid-19 on the profitability and quality of the bank’s assets “have decreased significantly, helped by the recovery of the Italian economy”.
The gross NPL ratio fell to 3.8% at the end of September 2021 from 4.4% at the end of 2020. At the same time, “the stock of loans on moratorium continued to decline, amounting to about 12 billion euros, or 2, 5% of net loans to customers at the end of September, while the deterioration of the overdue moratoriums is relatively contained “, concludes de Caro. (All rights reserved)
