The shock imparted to the global economy by the Covid-19 crisis is easing, but the risks remain high. The warning comes from the OECD chief economist, Laurence Boone, at the press conference to present the update of the Interim of the Economic Outlook. And one of the risks mentioned is that a rapid increase in demand puts even more pressure on prices and global supply chains, where there has already been a surge in the costs of transporting goods (the average cost of transporting a container from China). on the east coast of the US and went from $ 3,000 to over $ 20,000).
Global GDP has now exceeded pre-pandemic levels, but delays on recovery and employment persist in many countries, in particular, the Parisian institution underlined, on emerging countries and developing economies, where vaccination rates are low. . “So far the impact of the Delta variant has been limited in countries with high vaccination rates,” says the OECD. On the contrary, it has dampened the momentum elsewhere and, indeed, “increased the pressures on global supply chains”.
Thus, after the collapse of 3.4% last year during the worst moment of the crisis due to Covid-19, the world economy, according to updated estimates by the OECD, is set to grow by 5.7% this year. , 0.1 percentage points lower than the forecasts of last May, while for 2022 it indicated a + 4.5%, in this case adjusted upwards by 0.1 points.
The US economy will grow 6% this year, almost one percentage point lower than in May, and 3.9% in 2022, 0.3 percentage points higher. And if China’s growth is forecast at 8.5% this year and 5.8% in 2022, both estimates unchanged compared to the previous ones, the OECD has forecast a + 5.3% for the euro area. year, the figure revised up by 1 percentage point, and + 4.6% the next, in this case the revision was 0.2 points up. On the other hand, for Italy, the Parisian organization has re-proposed the forecasts of September 6: + 5.9% of the 2021 GDP, revised up by 1.4 points compared to May, and + 4.1% on 2022, in this case cut by 0.3 points.
Fueled by the recovery in demand for products and disruptions in the supply chain, inflation is expected to peak towards the end of the year at 4.5% on average in the group of 20 major economies, before falling to 3.5% by the end of next year. “Inflation”, the agency explained, “has increased rapidly in the US, Canada, Great Britain and some emerging economies, but remains relatively low in many other advanced economies, particularly in Europe and Asia”.
In this perspective, according to the Parisian organization, central banks must maintain accommodative monetary policies, but now “clear indications are needed on the times and scope within which inflationary excesses will be tolerated” and indications are also needed on “the timing and sequence of any moves towards the normalization of monetary policies “.
On the other hand, the increases in raw material prices and international transport costs are adding around 1.5 percentage points to current inflation levels in the G20 countries, the OECD estimated, concluding that the measures to aid the economy they remain necessary “as long as the short-term prospects remain uncertain and the labor markets have recovered”. In any case, they must be assessed on a case-by-case basis according to the national economies. (All rights reserved)
