The European auto market opens 2022 even more in crisis due to the protracted shortage of chips. In January and, in fact, car sales in the European Union reached a new all-time low for the month with 682,596 registrations, 6% less than in January 2021. While in the European Union, in the EFTA countries and in Great Britain they are 822,423 vehicles were registered last month, -2.4% compared to January 2021. Acea, the association of European car manufacturers, however, noted that some markets in central Europe recorded a strong recovery: Slovakia (+72, 6%) and Romania (+ 55.5%), for example, while in Poland sales recorded a -10.2%. In Western Europe, on the other hand, double-digit drops in Italy (-19.7%) and France (-18.6%), while Germany showed solid growth (+ 8.5%), only + 1% the Spain.
Among the car manufacturers, Volkswagen remains the leader with a market share of 25.4% (it was 25.6% a year ago) and 173,262 cars sold in January (-7% over one year). Stellantis follows in second place, but its market share drops to 20.5% from 22.7% in January last year: the group born from the merger between FCA and PSA sold 139,949 cars last month, on 15.1 % less than the 164,915 of a year earlier. Renault is third, with a 10.5% share (it was 10.2% a year earlier) and 71,349 cars sold (-3.5%). The French auto group is closely followed by Hyundai, which climbed to 9.7% of the market from 7.1% a year earlier, with a jump of 28.7% to 66,249 cars sold. Toyota also grew (+ 9.7% on the year with 57,155 cars).
“In January, 822,423 cars were registered in Western Europe, with a drop of 32.9% on pre-pandemic levels, ie in January 2019. The car market in the area, which had not shown any signs of recovery in 2021. after the drastic fall of 2020, it opens 2022 still strongly in crisis. All 30 markets in the area are in the red except for the very small ones in Iceland (+ 4.4%) and Cyprus (+ 8.7%) ” , found the Centro Studi Promotor, according to which the causes of this situation are attributable, not only to the pandemic, but also to the difficulties in supplying microchips which also make productive activity difficult.
In recent weeks these elements have been added to the concerns of businesses and people about the return of inflation, particularly evident in the fuel and energy sectors. The only positive sign in the gloomy picture of the automotive market is that in all countries, including Italy, interest is growing in electrical solutions that see their market shares increase. Compared to the pre-crisis situation, the worst result was achieved by Spain, which last January, on January 2019, suffered a drop of as much as 54.7%, followed by Italy which, in comparison, recorded a drop of 34.8% against -33.6% in France, -30.7% in Germany and -28.5% in the United Kingdom.
On the other hand, added CSP, Italy would certainly have won the black jersey in the patrol of the five major markets in the area, blowing it to Spain, if incentives had not been introduced, both in 2020 and in 2021, to facilitate the transition to and also the purchase of traditional cars, but with low emissions. This year in Italy there are currently no incentives for the car in force as the government has not deemed it appropriate to intervene for the sector with the Budget Law. On 9 February there was, however, an important meeting at the level of competent ministers in which a multi-year plan with adequate allocations was announced (there was talk of 1 billion and 200 million a year) to favor both the transition to ‘
At that meeting the adoption of measures was also announced to neutralize the negative impact on employment and the production of components linked to the advent of electricity. According to Gian Primo Quagliano, president of the Promotor Study Center, it is necessary, however, that words should be followed by deeds without further delay. And this is also because “our country absolutely needs to recover completely in the course of 2022 the collapse of the GDP of 2020. Italy must then continue on a path of accelerated growth because once we have reached the level of GDP in 2019 we will still have to recover ground. to reach the level of 2007, ie the level before the sub-prime mortgage crisis, a level that our European partners had already greatly exceeded before the pandemic. It will take a lot of effort. The Pnrr will be able to make an important contribution, but without the contribution of the car sector, which with its related activities is worth 12% of the GDP, the goal of shortening the distance in terms of growth with our European partners would be even more difficult “, concluded Quagliano.
The consensus expects an improvement in global car production over the course of the year supported by the increase in the new production capacity of chip-makers. Today Equita Sim has reduced this year’s estimates on global sales from + 6% to + 5% year on year (lower than the + 9% estimated by IHS, but still growing because the demand from end customers is robust), having It is clear that the first half will still be weak (Toyota, Ford and General Motors have already announced production cuts in the first quarter due to the lack of components) while the recovery in the second needs confirmation.
2022 will also be penalized by the known macro headwinds: inflation, labor costs in North America and transport costs with an impact on both Ros and net working capital, without considering the risk of escalation in Ukraine. For Equita, car-makers can compensate, but with difficulty, through a still positive mix (favoring the production of the most profitable models), sustainable prices from stocks still at their lowest level (from July in the US only 25 days, less than half the norm) . Instead, added Equita, tire manufacturers will continue to benefit from more defensive characteristics: exposure to the after market (three quarters of turnover, typically more resilient and much more profitable), from the price discipline always respected by all.
Consequently, the SIM has reduced the 2022 estimates for the players most exposed to Original Equipment: Faurecia, Sogefi, Stellantis, Iveco and Valeo, which it believes are struggling to compensate for the macroeconomic headwinds; minor adjustments from 2023, believing that the return to normal. The only exceptions are Umicore and Brembo which continues to gain market share in aluminum calipers. As for tire-makers, Equita raised Pirelli’s 2022-2023 earnings per share estimates by + 7% and Michelin by + 2% in light of the aftermarket growth and the ability to raise prices. Best buy Stellantis, Pirelli, Iveco, Faurecia and Umicore. (All rights reserved)
