The Fabi National Council, held yesterday, was an opportunity to reopen the discussion on the M&A chapter by the CEOs of the main Italian banking groups. In particular, from the statements that emerged, the idea is common that in the medium term (12-18 months) a new phase of consolidation in the sector could start, once the situation for Mps becomes clearer, with the updating of the industrial plan. which will be presented shortly and with DG Comp which should approve the extension to the exit of the Mef from the bank’s capital by the beginning of 2022.
In particular, observed today Equita Sim, the ceo of Banco Bpm, Giuseppe Castagna, who expressed his preference for the creation of a pole by making combinations with banks of similar size, has shown himself to be more possible than in the past compared to the hypothesis of M&A with Monte, once the capital increase of the latter has been completed, which should be completed in the first half of 2022.
“Considering the methods and principles agreed with the Mef by Unicredit last July, it is legitimate expect that any new deal involving Mps may be based on the same principles: a more restricted perimeter of assets, exclusion of legal risks, exclusion of impaired loans of Mps “, observed the sim.
On the other hand, Unipol, the first shareholder of Bper Banca with a stake of 19%, through its CEO, Carlo Cimbri, would have denied any interest of Bper Banca for a merger with Banco Bpm, reiterating, instead, clearly how Bper Banca can be an interlocutor for Banca Popolare di Sondrio, of which Unipol is a 9.5% shareholder, once the transformation into a Spa is completed.
However, the Interbank Deposit Guarantee Fund (Fitd) is in talks with a fund and two banks for the transfer of control of Banca Carige. And according to the latest rumors, the dialogues would be with Credit Agricole and Bper Banca. A meeting of the Fitd board for information on the dossier is expected on Thursday. The expectation is that the operation can be concluded in the first months of next year.
Instead, the CEO of Unicredit, Andrea Orcel, is focused on the execution of the plan just presented, but has not ruled out operations that can create value and returns on capital exceeding 10%. And that of Intesa Sanpaolo, Carlo Messina, is preparing to present the new plan expected for February 2022, which will be focused on wealth management, digitalization, while maintaining a high remuneration for shareholders.
“We agree that it is important to understand the solution for Mps. Unicredit and Banco Bpm have just presented credible industrial plans, which provide for greater remuneration for shareholders. We await the presentation of the new plans by Intesa Sanpaolo and Bper Banca, which we believe may give higher visibility on Roac (Return on Allocated Capital) than in the recent past, despite expectations of low rates for an extended period of time, “said an analyst. In this sense, “the consolidation of the sector could accelerate the creation of value for banks, even if the new legislation on DTA (deferred tax assets, ed) makes M&A hypotheses less attractive in the short term than the previous legislation”.
In the meantime, Banco Bpm rose by 0.58% to € 2.61 in Piazza Affari, Bper Banca by 1.07% to € 1.7435, Unicredit by 1.77% to € 13.018, Intesa Sanpaolo by 0.98 % at € 2.22, Mps of 1.63% at € 0.92, Carige (suspended with a theoretical + 8.87%). While the Stoxx Banks index appreciates by 0.73% to 96.54 points after gaining + 28.50% since the beginning of the year. For Websim the prompt and stable recovery of the discriminating threshold towards 142 points would be appropriate.
On the long-term framework, the objectives in the crosshairs of the current movement are 197/200 points (max 2018) and 226 points (max 2015). In 2007, shortly before the outbreak of the subprime crisis, I reached 547 points, about four times more. “Better use the scenario to buy. Increase the position with the first close above 150 points with a subsequent target towards 197/200 points”, indicated Websim. “Only a drop below the 116 points area would risk reversing the trend”. (All rights reserved)

Previous articleThe most beautiful beaches in Jesolo
Next article5 books to read for those who love Christmas