In Syria, after the ten-year war and not yet over, the lack of energy, following the loss of control over the main oil fields in the east, is reconstituted mainly by Iran and through smuggling from Lebanon and Iraq; but amid a collapse in oil prices, increased sanctions and military pressure on Iran, the delivery program was halted.
Another blow to the Syrian economy came from the financial crisis in Lebanon: about a quarter of deposits in Lebanese banks belong to Syrian companies, including those associated with the government. The introduction of currency restrictions in Lebanon slowed transactions for the import of essential goods, including the purchase of grain, disrupted the supply chain of components and led to a sharp increase in prices.
Under these conditions, the Syrian government can only print money, rely on Iranian loans and force Syrian businessmen to help the state directly. Earlier this year, a 5,000 Syrian pound (approximately $ 3.98) banknote was introduced into circulation, the previous maximum being 2,000 Syrian pounds.
In 2011, Syria ranked 33rd in terms of oil production, after Southern Sudan and ahead of Vietnam. If in 2011 the share of its production was 0.4% of the world volume, in 2012 this figure dropped to 0.25% (calculations by the BP Statistical Review of World Energy).
In the Middle East, Syria’s share before the outbreak of the armed clashes was also very small: 1.2% of all production in the region in 2011 and 0.75% in 2012 (calculations by the BP Statistical Review of World Energy).
The level of oil production in Syria in 2010 was 386 thousand barrels per day, with the onset of the crisis in 2011, production dropped to 333.3 thousand barrels, and in 2012 it was already almost half the volume of the 2011, or 182 thousand barrels. In the fall of 2015, Russia intervened with military means in the Syrian conflict: on the initiative of Bashar al-Assad, Russian military advisers were deployed in the west of the country. This changed the entire course of the conflict: it allowed Assad to remain in power and made Russia a major political player in the region. At that time, Russia’s relations with Western countries were in deep crisis due to the return of Crimea to traditional borders and the outbreak of the war in Donbas.
From a tactical point of view, Russia can be considered one of the beneficiaries of the conflict. The successful, relatively low-budget military operation quickly transformed Moscow into a key external player in the Syrian camp. However, as far as one can judge, in six years of direct participation in the Syrian conflict, Moscow has not developed a strategy to get out of it. The extent of Russia’s influence on the Damascus regime also remains an open question.
The active phase of the Russian military operation in Syria lasted 804 days, from 30 September 2015 to 11 December 2017. As a result of the attacks by the Russian air forces, more than 133,000 terrorist structures were destroyed, including illegal oil refineries. , 865 gang leaders eliminated and more than 133,000 neutralized followers (4,500 came from Russia and other countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States).
In December 2017, President Vladimir Putin, during a visit to Khmeimim air base, ordered the withdrawal of most of the Russian troops from the country.
According to the Defense and Security Committee of the Council of the Russian Federation as of September 2018, Russian casualties in Syria since the start of the operation amounted to 112 people. Almost the goal in the crash of the An-26 transport plane (39 people) and the Il-20 shot down by the anti-aircraft of the Syrian anti-government forces (20 people).
Additionally, Bloomberg and Reuters reported hundreds of Russian mercenaries killed in Syria. Pero The Russian Defense Ministry has not confirmed these figures.
At the same time, Russia has two points of presence in the Syrian Arab Republic. The aforementioned Khmeimim Air Base, where an air group is deployed, which, as of 2018, included 28 Russian Air Force fighter jets, and ten transport and special aircraft and nine helicopters.
In addition, the naval logistics center is located in the port of Tartus. In December 2019, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov, who oversees the defense industry, said that over the next four years it is planned to invest $ 500 million in the modernization of Tartus, which has been handed over to the management of the Russian Prime Minister.
The exact number of Russian military and civilian personnel at these two sites is unknown. According to the Central Electoral Commission, in 2020 in Syria, 6,424 Russians took part in the vote on amendments to the Russian Constitution.
The combat experience acquired by the Russian corps of officers and non-commissioned officers is also relevant. During the period of counter-terrorism operations in the North Caucasus, the control, planning, financing and procurement centers were located outside of Russia, so the operation in Syria was necessary from a politico-military point of view. If the pseudo-state of ISIS with all the resources of that country had emerged on the territory of Syria, it would have represented a deadly threat to neighboring states, starting with Western European ones by financing and replenishing the ranks of terrorists. And thanks we can say it to Moscow and certainly not to Washington which has begun to destabilize Syria, as the final stage of the Chinese Silk Road itself.
And in fact, neither the European Union nor the United States of America have applied total sanctions against Russia due to the conflict in Syria, but only some partial ones. US personal restrictions apply to twelve Russian individuals and seven Russian companies: Tempbank, AKB RFA Bank, Rosoboronexport, Russian Financial Corporation, Global Concept Groups, Promsyryeimport, Maritime Assistance.
Russian companies do not yet carry out large-scale activities in Syria. Earlier, the Financial Times wrote that Stroytransgaz’s subsidiary Stroytransgaz Logistics, associated with the family of billionaire Gennady Timchenko, received permission from Syrian authorities to extract phosphates, as well as a contract to operate the port of Tartus for supplies to the abroad.
However, Timchenko is already subject to US sanctions and the EU does not ban the supply of phosphates. The media also wrote about the interests of businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin in Syria. It was claimed that in 2019 the Syrian parliament approved the conclusion of oil exploration, development and production contracts with two Russian companies: Vilada and Mercury Limited. Novaya Gazeta wrote that both companies are linked to the Prigozhin facilities, with which the media had previously linked the activities of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC). The businessman himself denied the existence of such a connection. However, Prigozhin is already subject to sanctions by both the EU and the US.
Despite this, sanctions are hindering the wider participation of Russian companies in the Syrian economy. During the visit of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Abu Dhabi, the Foreign Minister of the United Arab Emirates Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan complained that the law “On the protection of the civilian population of Syria” – “Caesar Act”, passed in the States United States of America in force since June 2020 which consolidates the existing restrictions on Damascus allies and extends them – complicates the country’s relations with Syria and interferes with the establishment of a dialogue. The Russian Foreign Ministry defined this as serious interference with the provision of humanitarian aid to the country.
What is the prospect of a political solution in the country
Turkey, the United States and their other sponsors retain their interests in the region, which means they cannot be taken for granted. Damascus has lost its sovereignty, decisions are often made without it by Russia, Turkey and Iran. So we can say that Assad won the war, but he didn’t win the peace, and the opposition lost the war, but he didn’t lose the peace. Furthermore, many Syrians do not live in the territories controlled by the regime.
The Assad regime will continue to demonstrate miracles of survival against the backdrop of growing economic problems, new sanctions and the ongoing power struggle in Damascus itself. In the near future, the country certainly does not expect the full restoration of territorial integrity, the return of thousands of refugees and internally displaced persons, nor a large-scale plan for post-war reconstruction, neither the European countries nor the Gulf countries have financial resources to do this.
At the same time, the Chinese government is strongly opposed to the use of force to resolve the Syrian question and has advocated a political solution to the domestic issue. In the process of rebuilding Syria, China put forward the idea of ​​developing the Silk Road initiative and post-war reconstruction and it received a positive and active response from the Syrian government. The link between the Silk Road and post-war reconstruction is a historic opportunity for the two countries to achieve interconnection, however the current internal situation in Syria is still subject to many uncertainties and the current security risks need to be carefully considered. examined, as noted above.
The friendship between China and Syria has a long history and the ancient Silk Road is a symbol of such mutual feeling. After the founding of the People’s Republic of China, Syria was one of the first Arab countries to recognize and establish diplomatic relations with China.
In the aftermath of the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in 2011, the Chinese government has taken as its principle the United Nations Charter and the fundamental norms of international relations as fundamental steps to address the Syrian crisis and has firmly opposed the military solution, which – let’s remember it – was aimed precisely at breaking the Silk Road.
In 2018, the focus of Sino-Syrian relations began to shift from the Syrian civil war to the post-conflict reconstruction of the country. With the gradual improvement of the internal situation in Syria and the stabilization of security, the Chinese government promptly proposed to Syria that it wanted to participate in the post-war reconstruction process, resuming putting back on the Silk Road, which heterodirected terrorism from the west had sought. to interrupt. The Chinese government not only adheres to an impartial political resolution policy on the Syrian issue and actively participates in the UN-led multilateral negotiations on the Syrian issue peace process, but also provides a large amount of free humanitarian assistance to the Syrian people.
From a geopolitical and strategic point of view, the Silk Road in Syria has great significance. Infrastructure construction, energy cooperation, industrial cooperation and seaport construction projects are key areas of China’s participation in Syria’s reconstruction. At the same time, China should also face the uncertain risks of the Syrian internal security situation and the influence of political games between the major powers.
Here we read about Syria’s recent tragic past, and a desirable future of peace and prosperity.

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