A trip to Brussels that has been planned for some time but which at the last moment saw a change of priorities on the agenda: at the top are Ukraine and the possibility of a military intervention by Vladimir Putin ‘s Russia . It was accomplished this week by Avril Haines , director of intelligence of the United States, who met the ambassadors of the NATO countries on the situation that is becoming increasingly hot.
This was revealed by the New York Times, underlining how US intelligence has warned allies that there is little time to prevent Russia from taking military action in Ukraine (a question recently also at the center of a clash between the director of the Republic Maurizio Molinariand Russian diplomacy). In saying this, he hopes that European countries will work with the United States on a package of economic and military measures to discourage Moscow.
The American and British secret services, explains the New York daily, are increasingly convinced that Putin is considering the possibility of military action to take control of a wider swathe of Ukraine or to destabilize the country enough to inaugurate a government. closer to Moscow.
US intelligence, according to American and European sources in the New York Times, told allies that Putin is increasingly concerned about the peace process agreed with France and Germany after the annexation of Crimea and support for the separatist uprising in the Donbass. And that Putin, who continues to amass troops on the border with the neighboring country, may be willing to secure a land route between eastern Ukraine and Crimea. American analysts believe the president sees the coming months as a unique time to act, taking advantage of Angela Merkel ‘s exit and rising energy prices, which could limit support from Europe – largely dependent on supplies. Russians – to harsh sanctions.
“If we, the West, appear not to be cohesive and ready to work together, then the risk of the Kremlin making a terrible miscalculation rises,” said Frederick B. Hodges , the former commander of US troops in Europe. now at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Also pressured by the Republican Party, US President Joe Biden recently sent the head of the CIA, William Burns , to Moscow to meet with the head of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev and the head of the SVR Sergey Naryshkin . He face to face which was followed by a phone call with Putin.
According to Dario Quintavalle, Russia could invade Ukraine. But it won’t. He wrote on Formiche.net that compared to 2014, “when the conditions were much more favorable”, today “Ukraine is well armed, it has an army hardened by years of experience in the field, and an open invasion would encounter many other obstacles, as well as a much stronger national sentiment “. Without forgetting that “in Russia certain military adventures are much less attractive than in the past” and that the Kremlin “is doing excellent business with Europe, and has no interest in providing pretexts to hinder the commissioning of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. “.

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