ITALIANS CONSIDER THEY MUCH MORE INFORMED
By now, most Italians consider themselves informed about the question of the constitutional referendum. In the last month the worsening of the electoral campaign (which, as we will see, is considered negatively by the Italians because it is too crushed on a pro-con Renzi rather than on the merits of the question) has led many to inform themselves and take sides. Today 68% believe they are sufficiently informed, with an increase of 23% in just one month! THE REFERENDUM VOTE: NO
Lorien, to date, estimates a turnout of 58%, among these the voters who are now certain to go to the polls represent 48% of Italians of age. In the fifth survey on the referendum, Lorien registers an ever more decisive preference for the No. However, there remains a substantial number of voters who intend to go to the polls but are still undecided on the vote to be cast. These are mostly in favor of the reform (which would bring the vote back to a situation of parity / equilibrium), but at the same time it is evident that among those who are not yet convinced to go to vote, the orientation to No. prevails. as the electoral campaign advances, the orientations of potential party voters are also becoming more defined and in agreement with the official positions. The only significant difference is for the voters of the Popular Area (ncd-udc): a rather large number of voters take sides against the reform; but also for the voters of the Italian Left who are still largely undecided on the vote (just a month ago the Yes prevailed). The impression remains of a fairly transversal vote and not always so in agreement with the party positions: evident is the deep split and internal tensions of a part of the Democratic Party (only 66% of its potential electorate declares itself for the Yes) as well as the low propensity to vote on the No front (always lower than the expected turnout). but also for the voters of the Italian Left who are still largely undecided on the vote (just a month ago the Yes prevailed). The impression remains of a fairly transversal vote and not always so in agreement with the party positions: evident is the deep split and internal tensions of a part of the Democratic Party (only 66% of its potential electorate declares itself for the Yes) as well as the low propensity to vote on the No front (always lower than the expected turnout). but also for the voters of the Italian Left who are still largely undecided on the vote (just a month ago the Yes prevailed). The impression remains of a fairly transversal vote and not always so in agreement with the party positions: evident is the deep split and internal tensions of a part of the Democratic Party (only 66% of its potential electorate declares itself for the Yes) as well as the low propensity to vote on the No front (always lower than the expected turnout).EFFECTS OF A DRUG ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN: ITALIANS WILL WIN THE NO
Two thirds of Italians indicate that the reform is too complex and unclear to support it (precisely the lack of clarity is identified as one of the greatest dangers of this reform, which creates confusion and potential conflicts in the balance of power). At the same time, the campaign appears to be a referendum on the premier: content is lacking and many complain about a media imbalance in favor of the government. The scenario envisaged by the Italians is therefore of low turnout, according to the most widespread opinion less than 50% of Italians or a slightly higher figure will vote.
The expectation is now clear for a victory on the No front, perhaps also for this reason a weakening of the motivations to vote among those who are against the reform. While maintaining a growing trend, the poor ability to mobilize may not make the result obvious.
Furthermore, even in the event of a No victory, according to the Italians Renzi should continue his government action. SLIGHT RECOVERY OF THE GOVERNMENT BUT THE M5S IS THE FIRST PARTY
The opinion on the government collapsed again after the positive summer peak, today there is a new, but still weak recovery.
Ultimately it will be the referendum that will shift the balance and define the new political equilibrium. The League falls (especially in favor of FI than with Berlusconiand strongly took the field on the referendum match) and the M5S continues to strengthen. For the moment, also supported by the growth of the declared vote, the PD is holding, albeit put in crisis by internal divisions and tensions in the electorate. To date, center-left (PD), center-right (FI + LN + FdI + NCD) and M5S each collect practically a third of the electorate. At present it is not even possible to predict who could enter the ballot.
