The rise in the price of commodities seriously threatens to put a mortgage on the recovery in Europe now that the first money from the Recovery Fund has reached its destination and the pandemic appears to be under control. Energy, fuel, car components, metals, everything is soaring, pushing inflation to warning levels.
And so the entrepreneurs of the Old Continent find themselves short of raw material, more expensive when they find it and with heavier bills. There is enough to undermine the most structural of the shoot. Yet, Marco Fortis , economist, professor at the Catholic University and vice-president of the Edison Foundation , tells Formiche.net , there is no need to panic.The increase in the prices of raw materials seems to be a non-trivial problem for businesses and citizens. How much do we have to worry
Let’s make a premise. Prices are not just an Italian problem, it is a problem that affects the whole of Europe, indeed the whole world. Given the due proportions, then, Italy is suffering less than the others, like Germany and France, also because the car industry is no longer as dominant for the fate of our manufacturing as in the twentieth century .
Many countries have their own series productions. Italy has niche productions, which do not jam as it did in Germany. This is demonstrated by the fact that the third quarter in Italy will be better than many other countries. The point is that our industrial model, compared to the dominant ones of Japan and Korea, is much more flexible because it is characterized by many niche production sectors, very often of excellence, and a system of small and medium-sized enterprises able to withstand any impact force, also thanks to the reforms of industry 4.0. Procurement and costs of raw materials. Here is the deadly combination …
It is. But you see, all this has a greater impact on industries that make raw materials the deadly component. Italy is experiencing some pressure on certain industries, but not on many others. Overall, we’re not that bad. But how can this great planetary short circuit be explained ? It is the
fault of the misalignment of the different global lockdowns. We look to Vietnam, which is in lockdown today and we are talking about a great supplier. A year ago we were there. This shift has produced a major bottleneck on goods and prices, a major bottleneck which in my opinion is mainly due to a global economic crisis. Let’s hope it doesn’t last too long. What should we expect
Let the fight against the pandemic take its course and let us return to the starting point. In short, that the economy and its laws are rearranged. Here we are talking about a global catastrophe, not a blast. He will admit that overheating in prices risks jeopardizing the recovery, both global and Italian. I err
Look, the recovery is actually very strong and solid, especially in Italy. We are not only faced with a rebound. The data shows that the Italian manufacturing industry is running fast in many sectors, from mechanics to chemicals. Thanks to industry 4.0, investments in the manufacturing industry have grown on average at rates of over 8% for more than four consecutive years. The Northeast has nothing to send to Bavaria. Manufacturing Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia have performed even better than China thanks to the digital modernization and robotization of its companies which I consider an extraordinary fact “. And China
If Beijing stops, it’s a problem for everyone.
There too, it is certainly a problem because China consumes and produces a lot. But being the supplier of the world, I don’t think it has an interest in throttling supplies and prices, because it would lose out itself. I repeat, the problem is the global jam due to the various extremely jagged lockdowns. Let’s not forget the speculation… That is
Let’s think about gas. Russia has diverted many flows to China. This is just one of many grains of sand in the world gear. But Italy has a strong industry, if we don’t find a component we go and look for it somewhere. If Germany has to produce 80,000 Golf VolksWagen and it does not get the electronics from China, an entire industry stops, to be precise, Germany itself, which depends on the car, stops. We don’t have such production volumes which is a lifesaver right now. I’ll show you Vada.
I am pretty sure that Germany is not over 2% of GDP this year. Italy already has a forecast of 6%, net of the NRP. According to her, who is worse off
