The stalemate in Ukrainian negotiations, with the European Union ready to promote a fifth round of sanctions, arouses uncertainty on the European markets which, after an upward opening, now continue mixed (+ 0.11% Milan, -0.06% Frankfurt, + 0.28% Paris, + 0.19% London). Wall Street futures are in the red with the Dow Jones slipping by 0.18% and the S & P by 0.12%. “The theme on the inversion of the American interest rate curve continues to hold its own and this could eventually lead to possible future corrections on the markets. However, be careful not to confuse correction with recession, which is not yet present on the market”, comments Gabriel Debach, eToro market analyst.
Against this backdrop, “inflation is now showing rates that have not been recorded for several decades in developed markets. The threat of recession looms over the markets, particularly in Europe, even as last week’s sharp reversal in US bonds. , combined with high volatility on Treasury options, is a real warning: the risk of a US recession should not be ignored, ”said Lewis Grant, senior global equities portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. “If US bond markets are showing signs of stress, this move is not reflected on the equity side, where the Vix remains subdued and US indices are trading above their pre-conflict levels,” he adds.
As for commodities, gas is up (+ 0.24%) to 112.42 euros in Europe. In the last few hours, the idea of blocking the import of Russian gas has begun to circulate with greater insistence among European leaders. Brent instead recovered 0.64% at 105.66 dollars and WTI 0.82% at 100 dollars a barrel. “The Biden administration is considering a bold move to combat some of the effects of inflation, a massive easing from strategic oil reserves. The biggest and most important question remains: how to phase out Russian energy supplies, especially supplies of oil. gas to Europe “, comments Lewis Grant again. Gold rose by 0.42% to 1,931 dollars an ounce, while in the currency the dollar strengthened both on the single currency (at 1, 10) than on the yen (at 122). The greenback remains down on the Russian currency at 83 rubles (-0.73%) as well as the euro which falls by 4.36% against the Russian ruble to 93.76.
As for the latest macroeconomic updates, investor morale in the euro zone in April dropped to almost two-year lows, suggesting the start of a recession in the second quarter of 2022. The Sentix index for the euro zone dropped to April to -18.0 from -7.0 in March, a low since July 2020. A Reuters poll had indicated a reading of -9.2. The index that monitors current conditions fell to -5.5 from 7.8, to its lowest since April 2021, while the expectations index slipped to -29.8 from -20.8, to its lowest level since December 2011. The drop in morale in March was expected due to the outbreak of the war in Ukraine but the sharp drop in sentiment in April puts investors on the defensive again, the Sentix institute said.
“Conflict, related sanctions and uncertainties are pushing the eurozone economy into recession. Investors do not expect the central bank to come to the rescue with a more relaxed and expansive monetary policy given the still substantial pace of the euro zone. inflation growth, “he added. According to Sentix, morale is dropping globally, albeit nowhere as pronounced as in the eurozone. “No region is able to withstand the negative trend at the moment, even the important Asian region is already struggling with stagnation”, highlighted the institute.
At Piazza Affari, sales also on Interpump (-2.41%) and Cnh (-6.67%), while Snam (-1.18%) goes against the trend compared to utilities after the formalization of the change at the top and Saipem falls still 2.43%. In evidence, however, Amplifon (+ 2.44%), A2a (+ 2.33%) and Leonardo (+ 2.69%). Heavy Tim (-3.63%) after according to press rumors Kkr is preparing for today a response to the Board of Tim in which the fund would make it clear that it does not want to proceed with a binding offer. Among the minor titles, Roma rebounded by 1.71% after yesterday’s victory that throws them alone in fifth place in the standings and close to the Champions zone. (All rights reserved)
