After yesterday gaining over 4%, today Azimut reverses (-0.76% to 26.25 euros for 3.77 billion euros) with the Ftse Mib above par. But, following the press conference during which the Milanese asset management group anticipated some data on 2021, a series of promotions by analysts arrive.
Equita Sim confirms the hold rating and increases the target price by 9% to 29.5 euros. The 2021 net profit expected by the group chaired by Pietro Giuliani, between 600 and 605 million, compares with an estimate of 531 million by analysts (the consensus is lower, 518 million) “and well above the target of 350 -500 million, where the difference “should be” mainly linked to higher performance fees “, 300 million compared to 190 million expected.
Net inflows in 2021 at 18.7 billion compared to 17.1 billion expected, of which 5.5 billion Aum (out of 4.9 billion estimated), with a “solid net inflow of 786 million” in December. , or 18% annualized on managed assets. Total assets under management at the end of 2021 were 83.2 billion (+ 38% year-on-year) out of the expected 81 billion, of which 40% today comes from abroad, with a contribution on the ebitda front from abroad of about 70 million, to 53-58 million in 2020 (60 million in 2019 and 35 million in 2018). The assets in the private market segment amounted to € 4.6 billion with net inflows of € 2.5 billion.
The recruitment activity in 2021 recorded 141 entries (from 94 in 2020), reaching 1,840 units (from 1,791). In 2021 the net customer performance (weighted average) was 6.5% and + 1.6% compared to the Fideuram index. Azimut has filed an application for a change in the fees applied to Luxembourg funds (estimated by Equita at approximately 25 billion) with the local supervisory authority which aligns the calculation method of performance fees with the new guidelines established by ESMA.
The new calculation system will imply a Ter (total cost) for customers in line with the historical average, with a higher recurring component and the introduction of a system which, in the event of underperformance compared to the benchmark, provides for the return of a part of the recurring commissions. So “the change should result in slightly lower performance fees and slightly higher recurring”, notes Equita. The guidance on 2022 will be provided with the results of next March 10th. The stock is trading with a 10x expected price / earnings ratio in 2022 and offers a dividend yield of 5% for 1.3 euros per share (analyst estimate).
Banca Akros confirms the buy rating and raises the target price from 28 to 31 euros, equal to approximately 10%, recalling that the market considers the stock to be increasingly risky than its competitors. Consequently, Azimut’s price / profit ratio expected in 2022 is 48% discount compared to Banca Mediolanum and Banca Generali, a difference too large for brokers. According to which the strong earnings expected for 2021 offer ample room for maneuver to raise shareholder remuneration with a special dividend. Another interesting front for Akros is a “disciplined” M&A, as well as the expansion in the private market sector.
Intesa Sanpaolo (add, target price of € 28.5) believes that the net profit for 2021 is higher than the estimates for € 505 million, probably due to higher performance fees. Analysts had expected 180 million for the whole of last year. Mediobanca Securities (neutral, € 27.5) calculates that an estimated net profit of € 600-605 million (excluding € 30 million of goodwill realignment) is just above Piazzetta Cuccia’s estimates of € 595 million. The difference, for analysts, comes from the performance fees. (All rights reserved)

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