Come on, slowly. Luigi Lovaglio , new administrator of Monte dei Paschi after Guido Bastianini ‘s step backwards, perhaps even legal ones, has only a few days ago got his hands on the cloche of the oldest bank in the world, but it is already possible to try to trace a route on the future of the Tuscan institute.
In the days in which between the 64% shareholder Treasury and the manager who reported Mps in profit (310 million in 2021, after the maxi-loss of 1.6 billion in 2020), the tear was consumed, the result of a timing for the disengagement of the State and of an industrial plan not always shared, but also of frictions on cost management, the Stock Exchange was already celebrating the relay at the top of Rocca Salimbeni, with the title still maintained today (+ 1.2%) in positive territory. A sign that perhaps a discontinuity was not only expected by the markets, but perhaps also invoked (here the interview with the president of the parliamentary commission on banks, Carla Ruocco ).
Now, however, the question is: will there be an acceleration or a deceleration in the path that leads to the disengagement of the State from Monte dei Paschi, as specifically requested by Europe
Qualified environments close to the Tuscan bank have no doubts, it will be necessary to reconsider the industrial plan approved at the end of 2021, the last with the signature of Bastianini, to recalibrate Monte’s strategy on an extension of the times. The cornerstone of the privatization of MPs and the collateral disengagement of the Treasury is in fact the 2.5 billion capital increase, without which the bank cannot stand on its own legs.
A recapitalization that could arrive only after the summer, therefore well later than June, the month in which the tax incentives (DTA) for those boards that deliberate bank mergers will expire. Only once Mps has been recapitalized, even with recourse to the market, will the long-awaited white knight come into play. That could very well be, once again, Unicredit. The institute led by Andrea Orcel , who abandoned the negotiating table to take over Siena last November, will almost certainly move forward again, it is said in the parts of Siena.
Whether alone or in the company of other banking entities, it is worth seeing. What is certain is that the sale part of Mps will be the one relieved of legal costs (about 6 billion) and bad debts, to be unloaded on the Treasury company, Amco. In all this, a certain nervousness grows among the workers of MPS, gathered in the Fabi, the banking union. Indiscretions collected by this newspaper speak of a strong concern towards a trap that sooner or later could close, with all the consequences of the case.
On the other hand, Bastianini himself had admitted that at the end of 2021 the bank had a workforce of 21,300 employees, approximately 1,200 more than the promises made to the EU in the face of the ok for the precautionary recapitalization four years ago. Mps had instead centered the target on the cut of branches, which fell from over 2,000 at the beginning of the restructuring plan to just over 1,400, with a decline of more than 30%. The new plan to 2026 should therefore use scissors, with the hypothesis that the redundancies are higher than the 2,500 initially envisaged, up to 4,000 units, a figure that would cost Mps about 950 million to spend on the 2022 budget.
