Who knows if Andrea Orcel and his staff or representatives of the Italian government got up from the table and abandoned the negotiation between Unicredit and the Treasury shareholder of Mps , Alessandro Rivera as director general of the Mef in the lead. It is not clear, not even to read today’s press rumors against the light. If the truth is almost always in medias res then the stop to the confrontation on the bailout of the oldest bank must have been a bilateral decision. Too much distance on the Dta, the tax incentives for bank mergers, which the government has just renewed until June next year. But it is not only this that has caused everything to collapse, at least for the moment. EVERYTHING TO DO IN SIENA
The transaction for the sale of Mps to Unicredit had to be done, true, but not at all costs and, above all, at market conditions. And as long as the contribution in the form of DTA was around 5 billion, the solution seemed possible. But when the bar rose to 8.5 billion, in Via XX Settembre they acknowledged that they could not go forward. And so, at least for the moment, the project to create a second alternative banking center to Intesa (after the acquisition of Ubi) and with Unicredit as its center of gravity, vanishes.
The truth is that the claims by Unicredit were quite high as confirmed by some sources consulted by Formiche.net. If nothing else, off the radar of the Treasury, 64% controlling shareholder of Mps. The bank led by Andrea Orcel , successor of thatJean Pierre Mustier , who opposed the merger with Siena, asked the state to subscribe a 6.3 billion euro capital increase for the entire MPS; if we add the 2.2 billion Dta to this figure, a total public commitment of 8.5 billion euros would be reached. It’s not all.
Among the claims of Unicredit, also the cleaning of the accounts of Rocca Salimbeni, not only from non-performing loans but also from legal risks, aka pending disputes: value 6 billion, approximately. But one factor would have contributed above all to blowing the bank, according to the same sources. And that is the too extensive perimeter offered by the Treasury which, net of the bad debts discharged directly to the public company Amco and the MPS branches in the South placed in the belly of Mediocredito centrale, would still have been excessively large. Translated, the network of branches in the Center and North would have been too heavy a mouthful for Unicredit. Okay, but how does it come out DOOR AILED
It was the sources themselves who revealed it. In reality, yesterday’s stop is not the de profundis of Monte dei Paschi, indeed perhaps the prelude to a new move by Unicredit itself. To make the morsel more digestible, Unicredit could call together some banks to set up a kind of Nordic-powered consortium to detect the healthy part of Mps. In this way, he would spread the effort on more players. The extension of the DTA for another seven months, it is emphasized, goes precisely in this sense: to give incentives to those who want to be in the game. Therefore it is absolutely not excluded that in the next few days, before the Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco, report to Parliament and fly to Brussels to ask (it is not taken for granted) an extension of six months for the disengagement of the State from Siena agreed two years ago, Unicredit materializes in Via XX Settembre, perhaps in company.
There is more. The operation with Siena, the college in which the current president of Unicredit, Pier Carlo Padoan , was elected deputy , is strongly desired by the former Minister of Economy. So, here is the humus behind the Unicredit-Mps deal, the merger could go through under the sign of Padoan, leaving Orcel time and energy to grab his true industrial goal: Banco-Bpm. And who knows if it is a coincidence that the same Websim analysts see the extension of the DTA as a side to Unicredit, so that it can move to Banco. THE BAG DOESN’T LIKE
And then it is the markets themselves that want Siena to be rescued. This morning, a few hours after the halt to negotiations, Unicredit shares opened at -1.75%, and then regained their share, but only in the late morning. Very bad Mps, -4% in the opening and then remain in the deep red, around -2.7%. The markets have spoken.

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