It is the oldest bank in the world but also the most discussed and troubled one. Monte dei Paschi di Siena could risk ending up in a sort of limbo, prisoner of a puzzle with a difficult composition. After the farewell to the poison of the former CEO Guido Bastianini , who must be acknowledged for having brought the bank back into profit (310 million in 2021) which was succeeded by the former number one of Creval, Luigi Lovaglio , the road to the disengagement of the state, now a 64% shareholder, seemed a little easier.
A new industrial plan, to be calibrated on a recapitalization of no less than 2.5 billion, despite the fact that in recent days rumors have emerged about a much higher amount (3.5 billion) and then off with the system operation to return Mps to individuals and with the State, at least at first, reduced to the role of minority shareholder: or a white but lonely knight, perhaps that Unicredit ran away from negotiations with the Treasury last November. Or more banking entities, even if in that case the prospect would be to divide MPS into several parts.
So far so good, were it not that, as circles close to the dossier tell Formiche.net, complications would have arisen in recent weeks that risk leading to at least a dangerous stalemate, even for the entire national banking system. To begin with, it seems that Andrea Orcel , CEO of Unicredit, doesn’t want to know about taking on Mps shoulders. Too heavy, too problematic as a bank and perhaps too steeped in politics. Too bad that in Via XX Settembre, in particular the general manager, Alessandro Rivera, with whom it seems that Orcel does not have an excellent relationship, is convinced of the exact opposite and that is that the right spouse for Siena is and will remain Unicredit. This would be enough to rule out a future marriage, given that the two wavelengths are definitely not aligned.
But there is more. At Palazzo Chigi they would even have a different idea from that of the shareholder Mef, about the future of Mps. And that is that to save MPS more knights would be needed. The famous system operation with several banks involved (here the interview some time ago with the economist and former ECB, Ignazio Angeloni ). The problem is that such an intervention, it is pointed out, could not be separated from a sort of stew that unions and parties would almost certainly not digest.
The healthy part of Rocca Salimbeni fed to the banks ready to take over from the Treasury, the less healthy and swollen with legal costs and bad debts placed in the belly of the Mef spa, Amco and the southern branches turned over to Mediocredito. A plot that would lead to redundancies (the new plan to 2026 by Lovaglio could provide for redundancies exceeding the 2,500 initially envisaged, up to 4,000 units, a figure that would cost Mps about 950 million to be spent on the 2022 budget). In summary, the Mef would like to marry Siena to Unicredit, but Orcel does not want to know. While for Palazzo Chigi a broader, more structured operation with more subjects is needed.
Attention, it’s not over. The story of Unicredit’s takeover bid on Banco Bpm fits into this chessboard. Now, it is whispered, Orcel was really intent on launching the assault on Banco and in all likelihood he still is. However, Unicredit’s plan was to launch the takeover bid at the end of February were it not for the fact that Il Messaggero brought out the news a few days earlier, effectively burning Orcel’s move. That he would decide to give up, at least for the moment.
Now, it is not clear how and why Unicredit’s plans on Banco have been temporarily put on standby, the fact is that in the days in which Bper saves Carige for over 500 million, the banking risk finds itself again in a state of arrest, a partly due to cross vetoes, partly due to adverse coincidences. Which, it must be said, allows large foreign banks to open gaps. Starting with that Credit Agricole never so combative and always eager to plant (after Creval), other flags in Italy. Eye.
