Tim shares jumped by 8.60% to € 0.327 on the stock exchange, after an intraday maximum at € 0.33, the level at the beginning of March with 276 million shares changed hands (61.6 million the daily average of the last 30 sessions). Speculative scenarios fuel purchases even if, after Moody’s and Fitch, S&P yesterday downgraded the telecommunications giant from BB to BB- with a negative outlook due to the weakness of revenues and core earnings. The rating agency could further downgrade the rating to B + if leverage remains higher than 5x for an extended period due to more negative than expected operating free cash flow. “The rating downgrade is a negative but highly anticipated event”, commented Banca Akros this morning.
So the market looks to something else, to the confirmation of the US fund Kkr of the plant of the non-binding offer of last November (it has not been specified whether it will be at the original level of 0.505 euros per share). He remains interested in the entire group, with a large part of the equity financing, therefore without a significant impact on Tim’s debt position, and with times that will depend on access to due diligence.
In the letter sent to Tim, the US fund not only spoke of “positive exchanges” with the Italian authorities on the issue, but also said it was ready to discuss with the company the potential aggregation of its fixed network activities with those of Open Fiber. , as some sources revealed to Reuters this morning. An integration of the networks of Open Fiber and Tim was not part of the plans of the American fund, but Kkr, the sources specified, said he was ready to discuss with the group the antitrust implications of such an agreement and how it can create value. for Fibercop. “If confirmed, it would clearly be a positive development against the current market perception of low probability that this offer is finalized,” said Banca Akros (rating accumulated and target price at 0,
Now the ball goes back to Tim (for Bestinver Securities it is difficult to say now if and when the board will give a positive response to this request) who, however, is developing discussions with operators interested in the individual assets of the group. Cvc yesterday reiterated its interest in the Business part of ServCo. Yesterday the tlc giant also collected the government and Cdp endorsement for the single network project, with the statements by Francesco Giavazzi (economic advisor to the presidency of the council) relating to the government’s goal of creating the single network and by Dario Scannapieco , CEO of CDP, who reiterated the little industrial sense of duplicating investments.
Press sources reported an initial estimate of the synergies that can be activated in the event of the creation of the single network based on the estimates updated by the technical advisors in the new perimeter of the plan (which includes the gray areas), valued at around 4 billion euros (previously only spoke of 0.5-1.8 billion euros). The review of the advisors is expected to be completed in early April. Synergies which, if officially confirmed, are far higher than those incorporated in the Equita Sim valuation (1 billion or 2 euro cents per share pro-rata for Tim). On the KKR front, “it seems to us, however, that the situation is still interlocutory and that the hypotheses of valorisation of the individual assets are more concrete than an offer for the whole company”, concluded Equita that on the Tim share,
CDP’s support for a one-network deal comes as no surprise, considering the statements already made by the president, Gorno Tempini, in an interview earlier this year and Tim’s recent press release mentioning that scenario. , recalled Intesa Sanpaolo (no rating on Tim), believing that a possible official update on the matter will take place after the submission of offers for the “Italia a 1 GB” tender, which expires at the end of this month.
Bestinver considers the comments on the single network particularly positive with both the government and the CDP in favor of the project that could allow the telecommunications giant to obtain important regulatory relief. “Regarding the timing for the creation of the single network, we recall that during the presentation of the 2021 results, the CEO, Pietro Labriola, stated that the execution plan for the separation of the business, ServCo and NetCo, which will be fundamental to bring the project ahead, it will probably take 12-18 months. After the separation, NetCo and Open Fiber should get the green light from the European Antitrust and this decision could further lengthen the process “, warned Bestinver (buy and target price under review on Tim). (All rights reserved)
