Italian industrial production unexpectedly drops again in October. In fact, it decreased by 0.6% seasonally adjusted compared to September (+ 0.1%), when economists expected a + 0.4%, while on an annual basis it marked an increase of 2% (it was forecast at +3 , 3%) after the + 4.5% (revised figure from + 4.4%) in September. The calendar working days in October were 21 against 22 in October 2020. Despite the decline highlighted, Istat pointed out that in the average of the August-October quarter the level of production increased by 0.6% compared to the previous quarter and that production in October is seasonally adjusted by 0.7% higher than in February 2020, the last month before the pandemic crisis.
In more detail, compared to September, the seasonally adjusted index in October grew only for energy (+ 2.3%), while it decreased for intermediate goods (-0.8%), consumer goods (- 0.9%) and capital goods (-1.4%). On an annual basis, on the other hand, there were increases for intermediate goods (+ 3.4%), consumer goods (+ 2.7%) and energy (+ 1.8%); capital goods decreased slightly (-0.1%). The sectors of economic activity that recorded the greatest trend increases were the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (+ 20.4%), the wood, paper and printing industries and the food, beverage and tobacco industries (+ 5.6% for both sectors) and the manufacture of machinery and equipment (+ 5%). Conversely, minus sign for the manufacture of means of transport (-13.2%), in mining activities (-7,
“The data on industrial production in October are very bad. Instead of improving, we get worse. Unfortunately, after the good results of the previous months, we are back in negative territory compared to the pre-pandemic values”, commented Massimiliano Dona, president of the Union. consumer nationality, adding that “according to our study, in fact, if in October, as also reported by Istat, production is 0.7% higher than February 2020, the last pre-lockdown month, a goal achieved but very often in the past , exactly seven times, now the level of production falls in comparison with January 2020, the last pre-pandemic month, -0.7%. Even worse for consumer goods which mark a drop in both February and January 2020, respectively – 0.3% and -2.7%. If we add to this that,due to the difficulty of finding some raw materials and the expensive electricity and gas bills, nothing good is expected in the coming months, and the picture takes on dark colors “, concluded Dona.
The Codacons also worried about the setback for consumer goods, which fell by -0.9% on a month, with durable goods that even dropped -1.4% compared to 2020, “a worrying sign for our economy, also in consideration of the fact that Italian industry will have to deal with the bill alarm triggered in October, with the raw materials crisis and with the increase in retail prices recorded in November “. The fear of Codacons, as explained by the president, Carlo Rienzi, “and that in the coming months the industrial sector may face a sharp slowdown, also due to lower consumption by families who, in the face of the sustained growth of inflation, they will cut spending.
Reassurances came from Prometeia. After the setback in October, Italian industrial production will return to growth in the coming months, with the prospect that the slowdown may be almost completely recovered between November and December. Prometeia, in fact, expects cyclical increases of 0.7% over the month in November, 0.3% in December and 0.1% in January. A trend that would inherit a positive drag (+ 0.5%) on the first quarter of 2022, while the fourth quarter should confirm a marginal decline of 0.1% in the economy.
“The slowdown does not compromise the good production activity generated in the first nine months of the year”, underline the economists of the research institute. “Furthermore, the further improvement, between October and November, in the confidence of manufacturing firms, both in the assessment and in the expectations component, bodes well, despite the risks related to component shortages and the increase in input prices. intermediates still maintain a high degree of uncertainty “.
Britain’s industrial production, published today, also fell by 0.6% on a monthly basis in October, while it rose by 1.4% on an annual basis. The economic data clearly disappointed the consensus of economists who expected an increase of 0.2% month on month. Instead, manufacturing production, also in October, remained unchanged on a monthly basis and increased by 1.3% annually. Less pronounced slowdown for industrial production in Spain, which fell 0.4% monthly and 0.9% year-on-year in October. The economic data clearly disappointed the consensus of economists who expected a 1% increase month on month. (All rights reserved)
