All the predictions on the meeting between the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and the German counterpart Sergej Lavrov. Pierluigi Mennitti’s article
Who knows what documents the German Foreign Minister will bring in the folder with which she will present herself today at the meeting with her Russian counterpart Sergej Lavrov. In the midst of the most serious East-West crisis since the end of the Cold War, Annalena Baerbock has put a double, very delicate appointment on her agenda. Yesterday in Kiev, with the Ukrainian counterpart, today in Moscow.
Long awaited face to face between a novice and an old fox of international diplomacy. But Baerbock could be helped by the warning launched over the weekend by the leader of the internal opposition Friedrich Merz, now close to being crowned president of the CDU. The former business lawyer, a man well versed in the mechanisms of international finance and at the same time among German politicians less sensitive to Russian charm, warned the West (and in particular the USA) to put into practice the mother of all economic sanctions, namely the exclusion of Russian banks from the international Swift system, which connects more than 11,000 banks in over 200 countries around the world.
A sanction that the United States and the European Union have already been evaluating for several months and that in these hours of heightened tension has once again been strongly requested by some of the Democratic senators. “Questioning the Swift system could be the nuclear bomb for capital markets and also for the relations between goods and services,” Merz said in an interview with the Dpa news agency. A boomerang that would also backfire against the West. If such a measure were applied, “we would also cause enormous economic repercussions to our economies”, continued the next CDU leader: “it would not only be Russia that would be affected, because in the end we would inflict considerable damage on ourselves”.
While waiting to understand the tones and ways in which Baerbock will be welcomed in Moscow, the minister carried out the first part of her complicated mission, the Ukrainian one, with a certain elegance.
In Kiev, Berlin assured “solidarity” in the face of the aggressive tones of the Russians and the recognition of the intangibility of the Ukrainian borders. That is true for the Donbass and also for the Crimea. But this solidarity will be expressed, as well as in words, with diplomatic steps. Like the German attempt to resurrect the so-called Normandy format together with France, the quartet of European powers that has tried in recent years to ease the tension in the East and to start a complex path of reconciliation. The Minsk agreements remain the sextant of German diplomacy, a package in which we talk about Ukraine keeping Ukraine inside (as Baerbock pointed out): in Berlin it is evidently annoying that the eastern destinies of the European continent are decided in direct talks between Washington and Fly.
It is significant that in the official speeches at the end of the press conference with the Foreign Minister of Kiev Dmytro Kuleba, references to both the Ukrainian request to send weapons by the German side and the disputes over Nord Stream 2 have completely disappeared.
In terms of energy, Berlin has provided Kiev with financial and technical support for the development of renewable energies. A particularly welcome key to Green Baerbock: climate diplomacy is one of the cornerstones of its foreign policy program and Ukraine seems to lend itself perfectly to the first attempt to implement it. And on the other hand, support for the Ukrainian energy turnaround was one of the commitments that the previous Merkel government had made to obtain the American green light for the pipeline. In the foreground agreements for the development of hydrogen: “The way to renewable sources is also the way to greater energy independence of Ukraine from Russia”, added the German minister.
After Kiev Moscow. A meeting, the one between Baerbock and Lavrov, which many German commentators describe without too many words as a sort of confrontation between beauty and the beast. But beyond the cinematic references, the face to face between the two ministers will reveal whether Berlin (whose new government shows a fluctuating profile on foreign and energy policy issues) is still able to play an important role in a decisive scenario for its security and for that of Europe.
