Mario Draghi’s profile, ideas and challenges. Gianfranco Polillo’s analysis
What will be the political perimeter of the next government At the
beginning it seemed that few would want to be part of it. To the point of representing a completely insufficient parliamentary majority. After less than 24 hours – the power of the winner’s aid syndrome – it seems that the available places have suddenly become insufficient: everyone, or almost all, would like to join. And so the old prejudices against Mario Draghi have turned into new diktats not against the former president of the ECB, but against the target of a qualification. It will be a technical or political government
More or less goat wool: especially if one of the main supporters of the theory of political government responds to the name of Giuseppe Conte. That everything can be considered, except a neo “purebred” (Moro and Fanfani) of politics.
If we look ahead, we cannot help but remember one of the characteristics of the crisis from which it all originated. Features destined to make school. The clash was over the contents. Of course not everyone believed it. But this had been the prevailing sign. Then everyone can have the reserves that he deems most appropriate. The reasons given by the President of the Republic had, however, reinforced this approach. Upstream the drama of the crisis, downstream the choice of a candidate called to form a high-profile government “that should not identify with any political force”. The strength of which, therefore, could only derive from the ability to design a program at the height of the crisis that the country was experiencing. To then be able to implement it.
The succession of these precedents, albeit in their subtle consistency, will only affect the evolution of the next few days. And also that of the next few months. As the President in charge illustrates his program, it will be increasingly difficult for the protagonists of the parliamentary affair to back down. We saw it right away. With the 5 stars who were the first to change their minds, after Vito Crimi’s somewhat improvised niet and Alessandro Di Battista’s invective against “the apostle of the elites”. First Luigi Di Maio, then Giuseppe Conte corrected the shot, leaving the critical theorists of the AAP – “high profile crowded” – in the sober language of the journalists of Il Fatto Quotidiano in canvas breeches.
The novelty, therefore, lies in the fact that around Mario Draghi a safety net is taking shape destined to repair him from the most zealous sappers. Some political forces will explicitly take part in it. But others are complementary. They do not expose themselves, more than necessary, but are ready to support him in any moments of difficulty. Not just for the respect we owe to the character. But to avoid the risk of a possible suicide, should the situation get out of control.
That later difficulties may arise, it is not certain, but probable. It can be said, however, that they will hardly be such as to bring about the fall of the government, once it is constituted. The strength of Mario Draghi is that which derives from the deep knowledge of the mechanisms of the crisis. Knowledge that will illuminate his government program. From this point of view, the differences with respect to both Mario Monti and Carlo Azeglio Ciampi are profound. Compared to the first, he is not the bearer of that awe that the Bocconian had towards the EU. Compared to the second and, on the other hand, the bearer of a determination, which arises from the ethics of conviction. It will therefore not be easy to impose solutions on them if they do not respond to the severe scrutiny of rationality.
Anyone wishing to have proof of this can only get the article in the Financial Times, in which the Prime Minister in charge illustrated the outline of the intervention necessary to combat the crisis, not only epidemiological, linked to COVID-19. It was March 25, 2020, and the emergency had just broken out, but no one was able to cope with it. In that long paper, Draghi warned of the danger of the emergence of a “deep recession” considered “inevitable”, against which it was necessary to fight to prevent it from turning into permanent deflation.
To win that war – a similarity that will appear several times – one did not have to spare himself. Even at the cost of having a “significant increase in public debt”, capable of absorbing even the private one. The task of the state was, in fact, to “use its budgets to protect citizens and the economy from shocks for which the private sector is not responsible and unable to absorb”. At the same time, it was essential to protect jobs, rather than guaranteeing an income, or rather a “refreshment”, to those who had lost it. And then, well the redundancy fund, the postponement in the payment of taxes, but above all to guarantee companies the necessary liquidity.
The specific task of the banks had to be that of granting the necessary loans to businesses, even at no cost, so as not to waste that wealth of knowledge and work experience, which time had accumulated. The State had to do its part in this mission, providing the necessary guarantees, in order to prevent any subsequent insolvencies from producing an avalanche effect, destined to affect the entire banking system, expanding the scope of the disaster. All in the light of a basic philosophy that he himself expressed.
“The debt levels – he pointed out – have increased, but the alternative – a definitive destruction of the productive capacity and therefore of the fiscal base – would be far worse for the economy”. He then concludes: “Faced with circumstances never seen before, a change of mentality is as necessary in this crisis as it would be in times of war. The shock we are facing is not cyclical. The loss of income is not the fault of the sufferer. The cost of hesitation could be irreversible ”.
As you can see, we are not faced with the abstractness of some “useless sermon”. The reasoning is, at the same time, circular (finance and real economy) and all-round. And it is the strength of such a method, which makes us calm. Navigation can also be stormy. But the boat is made solid by the expectations of the vast majority of citizens, and by the presence of an expert helmsman.
