Gazprom is keeping the taps open for now, even though it is examining various options for cutting off gas supplies to countries considered “hostile” and assessing the possible consequences. This morning the company announced that supply via Ukraine continues with volumes of 108.4 million cubic meters, “in line with the demands of European consumers”. The demand for gas is in decline compared to yesterday, in which European countries requested 109.5 million cubic meters.
Today the price of European natural gas drops by 1.66% to 123.80 euros per megawatt hour after the blaze of the eve in the wake of the decree signed by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, on the rules of the Russian natural gas trade with the so-called ” Hostile countries “for payment in rubles. Despite the reassurances given to the EU days ago, Russia will suspend active contracts if buyers fail to pay in rubles. To do this, they will have to open special accounts at Gazprombank, a state-controlled bank, for foreign currency exchange. Italy and Germany had claimed to have received guarantees from Putin on European purchases in euros.
A step back from the Kremlin that sounds like blackmail, according to Germany, which is studying the possibility of nationalizing the assets of Gazprom and Rosfnet present in its territory. The federal government wants to prevent a massive deterioration in the energy supply of the two Russian companies, which is of vital importance for the German industrial system: Gazprom Germany has large gas storage facilities, while Rosneft Deutschland is a key player in the German industry. oil, diesel and kerosene refining markets.
At the same time, the two companies are in danger of technically going bankrupt as business partners and banks have been distancing themselves from Russian-owned companies ever since the West’s sanctions against Moscow went into effect. Economy Minister Robert Habeck said yesterday that the federal government has activated the early warning phase contemplated in an emergency law, which could lead to rationing if the flow of gas becomes insufficient to meet demand.
above all because the sanctions have frozen about half of Moscow’s international reserves. This new mechanism can be seen as an extension of Russia’s strategy to “de-dollarize” the economy and reduce dependence on foreign financial systems and, at the same time, to ensure that energy revenues are accumulated more securely. ” .
Prime Minister Mario Draghi also called Putin’s decree “an unacceptable blackmail”, a move “to split Europe” from which member countries will escape. Draghi has no doubts: dividing the Union between good and bad is the goal of the Tsar. Harsh words were expressed only two days after the video link with the Kremlin, in which weak signs of opening were reported. Putin intends to use the exception in the sale of gas to Europeans as a means of undue pressure: whoever should be too hard on Moscow, call for new sanctions or increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine, would be punished with the energy cleaver. In particular, the intent of the Russian president is to remove France from its allies, which enjoys economic independence with nuclear power, and at the same time make Berlin and Rome nervous, which would find themselves more exposed and fragile. The premier yesterday had telephone talks first with the French president, Macron, and then with the German chancellor, Scholz, to promise himself a common reaction beyond the differences that certainly weaken the front.
The European Commission would be preparing to provide an initial shared response in the next few hours. The idea is to reiterate the intention to continue to pay existing contracts in euros, postponing the question of rubles to any new stipulations that will come. For the Italian premier, a first obligatory move should be to set a “price cap”, a European ceiling on tariffs that continues, however, Scholz does not like. For the former banker it would serve to dampen tensions on the energy market and immediately hit the profits that the Tsar uses to wage war. Berlin slows down, while Paris relaunches and proposes an immediate stop to Russian imports. Draghi is not prejudiced against this scenario, even if he knows the risks and the heavy repercussions. He also knows that the US president, Joe Biden, will return to office, demanding even tougher trade sanctions from his partners, capable of causing the total isolation of the enemy. He is unlikely to let the gas out.
The Minister of Energy Transition Cingolani argues that the country’s reserves allow Italy to continue “even in the event of sudden and unlikely interruptions to Russian supplies”. If in the next few hours the clash with Putin were to worsen again, the alarm would be raised to level two (on an emergency scale of three). In fact, a reduction in consumption would be required, starting with that of public buildings, monuments and public administrations. In the meantime, after the Foreign Minister, Luigi Di Maio, has laid the foundations to increase imports from Qatar, Algeria, Congo, Angola and Mozambique, Draghi could travel to Algiers for an intergovernmental summit to strengthen the partnership with the country. North African; Di Maio, on the other hand, will be in Azerbaijan today.
