The G20 in Rome is the most important appointment in Italian foreign policy. The game Mario Draghi plays is simple: pilot him in difficult waters, demonstrating that Italy is up to the leading international role that the calendar entrusts to it. Doing so can strengthen the already very good relationship with Joe Biden . The more solid the transatlantic relationship, the more Rome’s prices rise in Europe and the more they will listen to us also in Beijing, Moscow, Delhi.
The first challenge is to demonstrate that the G20 works despite the great absentees: Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Without speculating on the reasons – the Covid risk is a bit weak – the implicit message is of little commitment on the agenda, if not of indifference. Participating in video is a stopgap. So it is essential Rome awards presence. The message will be that we can go on even with the autocrats at the window. As Giampiero Massolo wrote in the Press, the latent question is “what to do with the autocrats”. If the answer is: to go ahead with or without them – mind you: not against them – the G20 under the Italian presidency will have been a success.
On what to go on
The agenda is tight but the litmus test are above all the two global issues on which the G20 can make a difference: pandemic and climate change. In both, it depends on the twenty richest and most industrialized countries in the world to act as a locomotive for others who do not have the means, the technology and the resources to do it themselves. Just think of Africa which has a percentage of vaccinated people around 5% (there are some Italian no-vaxes who think about it
). On the other hand, until Africa is vaccinated we will never get rid of Covid; vaccinating others is in our interest. The G20 must credibly relaunch the United Nations COVAX campaign. And they must follow facts, money, vaccines and, now, even medicines to treat those affected. Words are no longer enough.
The same, identical, logic applies to the fight against climate change. All the more reason. All the G20 countries, for better or worse, have plans to get to “net-zero”. Between a flood and a fire, they realized that it’s not a joke. They have to accelerate their pace, anticipate deadlines, but they are on the road to decarbonisation and renewables. Our public opinions, the Greta Thunbergs on duty will give governments no respite. But the energy transition costs money. The rest of the world can afford it
The energy transition will be at the heart of COP26 which opens in Glasgow immediately after the G20. Either they are all on board or the good programs of the US, the UK, the EU will not shield us from the effects of climate change. CO2 emissions know no borders. Therefore, a clear message of financial and technological support from the blessed owners of the energy transition of the rest of the world must come out of the G20. If you have a realistic discount, you will come aboard.
It goes without saying that the fight against Covid and climate change is in the interest of Russia and China, as much as of the West. We are all truly in the same boat. If the G20 sets sail, even the big absentees will belatedly jump on board. Without discounts, they are not the ones who need it.
