The long-awaited green light has come from the US House of Congress for the huge plan of over one trillion dollars for infrastructures, put forward by the US president, Joe Biden, thanks to the agreement reached between progressives and moderates in the Democratic party. The plan, which had already been approved in August by the Senate, is now awaiting the signature of the president to take effect. Under the agreement reached, the other package of social climate measures developed by Biden, for a total of more than 1.8 trillion dollars, will be voted further by the House if the expenditure estimates elaborated by the office of budget control by Congress will coincide with those of the White House.
The approved plan provides for the renewal of the current federal investments in infrastructures (approximately 400 billion dollars in total) to which are added new investments of 579 billion over the next five years mainly for roads and bridges (109 billion), public transport (39 billion ), the railway network (66 billion) and high-speed (10 billion), the broadband network (65 billion) and the energy network (73 billion). Taking into account the technical timing for identifying the projects to be financed, the assignment and the start of the works, the Equita Sim analysts estimate that the first significant impacts from the US infrastructure plan will occur starting from 2023.
The experts also point out that there are some stocks in the Milanese list that are well exposed to benefit from the plan launched overseas. Among these, in the building materials sector, there is for example Buzzi Unicem which in the States generated 57% of its EBITDA last year. Cementir also joined himwhich achieves 8% of its ebitda there (in this case Equita expects a slightly more limited impact given its exposure to white cement in the US). According to the estimates of the Pca of October, with the infrastructure plan, the demand for American cement should grow by 1.7%, 3.7%, 2.4% and 2.7% respectively in the years between 2023 and 2026, a considerable increase from 1.1% to 0.2%, 0.5% and 1% expected in the absence of new investments.
Remaining in Piazza Affari, the sim sees good growth forecasts also for Webuild which generated 28% of its turnover in 2020 in North America, as well as Prysmian , which generates about 40% of its EBITDA, and Cnh Industrialwhose construction equipment division generates more than 5% of the group’s turnover in those territories. Not least, according to the sim, also Interpump , which also in North America collects around 30% of its revenues, and Enel which derives around 5% of its EBITDA from the area.
Among the fray, Intesa Sanpaolo also highlights Salcef : “we recall that in the United States, Delta Railroad Construction, of which Salcef owns 90%, could secure the procurement of projects financed by federal funds, and could also participate in tenders for ‘procurement financed by private funds “, stressed the bank.
At the beginning of the week some stocks reflect the good news and trade upwards, including Webuild which rises by 1.48% to 2.20 euros, also thanks to the news that the Supreme Court of Cassation has declared inadmissible the four appeals presented in the during 2020 by some Astaldi bondholders against the provision of approval of the relative arrangement. The Court’s ruling represents the last step in the composition procedure involving Astaldi, in which Webuild took over the same company.
Salcef also leaps to 4.35% to 21.60 euros and Buzzi Unicem up 2% to 20.36 euros. On the latter, Equita also confirms the buy rating and target price of 29 euros, after the company reported, in the first nine months of the year, a slightly better turnover than expected, equal to 933 million (+ 5.1% on the year) compared to the 915 million forecast, and strong cash generation (+101 million compared to the red of 242 million at the end of 2020).
Following the accounts, the SIM also confirmed its 2021 operating estimates while it improved the financial position by 90 million (now at 123 million). Finally, for 2022/2023 Equita substantially confirmed the estimated EBITDA of 812 and 846 million. (All rights reserved)
