Births, marriages and migrations: there are signs of recovery but not yet recovery. This is the picture that emerges from the Istat report on the demographic dynamics 2021, which continues to be negative: at 31 December the resident population was about 253 thousand lower than at the beginning of the year; in the two years of the pandemic, the population decline was almost 616 thousand, mainly due to the natural balance. New negative record for births, but slight signs of recovery at the end of the year
The births of the resident population in 2021 were just 399,431, a decrease of 1.3% compared to 2020 and almost 31% compared to 2008,most recent relative maximum year of births. However, the decline in total births already observed in 2020 (-3.6% compared to 2019) is due only in part to the effects of the pandemic. The first effects on births referable to conception in March and April 2020 (first lockdown) can, in fact, be observed starting from the last two months of the year, especially in December 2020 (-10.7%) iv.
The trend of births in 2021 allows us to have a more detailed picture of the consequences that the epidemic has had on the trend of births. The decline in births continues in the first two months of 2021: in January there is the maximum contraction at the national level (-13.4%), with a peak in the South (-15.0%). The decline continued in February, albeit to a lesser extent (-4.8%). The deficit of births in January 2021, among the largest ever recorded, leaves little doubt about the role played by the epidemic.The collapse of births between December 2020 and February 2021, to be referred to the lack of conception during the first pandemic wave, is a symptom of the postponement of the parenting plans which lasted more markedly in the first seven months, and then slowed down towards the end of the ‘year. The postponement of births is particularly pronounced among younger women. The illusory impression of overcoming the emergency perceived in May 2020 may have led to the increase in births in March 2021, a month in which a slight trend reversal is observed (+ 4.7%) compared to the same month of the previous year. ; these are the births conceived during the beginning of the transition phase between the two epidemic waves of 2020.The increase is more sustained in the South (+ 11.1%), suggesting a recovery in the summer months of conception postponed in spring. The North-West is the only division that continues to show a negative variation, albeit much more contained than in previous months (-0.4%). Starting from August, the negative trend begins to be less marked, up to a decisive reversal in the months of November and December when there are consistent increases in births compared to the same months of 2020 (respectively + 6.8% and +13 , 5%). Also the recovery in the months of November and December 2021, as already observed in March, mainly concerns births to women of 35 years or older. Strongly negative natural balance
Overall, the natural balance of the population is always strongly negative. Deaths still remain at high levels compared to the pre-Covid period. Positive signs for migratory movements, on the increase compared to 2020, and for marriages, which doubled in comparison with the previous year, but even in this decline the recovery is not sufficient to recover what was lost in the first year of the pandemic.
