The European stock markets open the week of the ECB, shorter for the Easter holidays, under par. The Dax lost 0.49%, the Ftse100 0.29%, the Ftse Mib 0.06% at 24,805 points. An exception is the Cac40 in Paris, up by 0.16% with Emmanuel Macron who won the first round of the presidential elections in France with 27.6% of the votes, according to final data published by the local interior ministry. The outgoing president challenges Rn (Rassemblement National) leader Marine Le Pen, who obtained 23.41% of the votes, to the ballot on April 24. While Jean-Luc Melenchon remained out of the second round of elections, finishing in third position, with 21.95%. Abstention was 25.14% of registered voters. About 538,495 French voted white ballot (1.14%).
Russian bombing in Ukraine continues. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Russia would launch a full-scale attack in the East during a Sunday evening speech to the nation, but said “we are ready”. And he accused the Russian leadership of “lying” in an attempt to shift the responsibility for the war: “They destroyed the lives of millions of people. They started a full-scale war and act as if it were our fault,” accused the president. The United States has promised Kiev to provide the weapons it needs to defend itself. However, the diplomatic channel remains open: a meeting in Moscow is scheduled for the day between the Austrian chancellor, Nehammer, who went to Kiev on Saturday to meet Zelensky, and Putin.
On the economic front, S&P further cut the Russian rating to “selective default” citing the growing risks that Moscow is unable or unwilling to honor its commitments with foreign debtors. Speaking of the West’s sanctions on Russia, Zelensky stressed that “we have found some things in the sanctions that are easy for financial experts to get around. Russia has bypassed them and it is absolutely true. The Western world knows that. This shouldn’t be. allowed “.
Awaiting Thursday for the ECB meeting and tomorrow for the American inflation data given a further increase to 8.5%, the BTP / Bund spread rises to 165.9 basis points and the Italian 10-year yield to 2.404%. The placement of annual BOTs is planned for tomorrow. “The mountain of money poured into the markets following the pandemic: BofA has calculated about 31 trillion dollars it will be gradually absorbed no earlier than the next 5 years and therefore it is reasonable to expect that the current negative real yields will remain below their historical average which is positive . However, it does not seem that savers are fully aware of this. An international survey shows that respondents for 2022 expect positive real returns of 8% “, said Antonio Tognoli of Integrae Sim.
For those in search of yield, “the only way to move away from zero and increase portfolio risk, increasing the weight of the same towards equity. However, given the macroeconomic situation in both the US and Europe characterized by a decline in growth economic activity induced by the growth of interest rates, it is preferable to be cautious. In a context of greater inflation and a positive correlation between shares and bonds, which in itself increases the risk, it is necessary to rethink the 60-40 balanced allocation classes, increasing exposure to equities, but diversifying investments in a reasoned way, including real assets and more flexible strategies on bonds “, suggests the expert.
Alternatively, “it is possible to obtain yield and decorrelation even without necessarily increasing the exposure to equities, avoiding competition with indices in the short term and planning long-term investments with the diligence of a good family man. Do not forget, for For example, emerging countries, which we believe will continue to emerge, which, according to our estimates, could deliver yields of around 10% a year in dollars, in addition to high-coupon Italian stocks: some stocks offer dividend yields above the 9% “, concluded Tognoli. (All rights reserved)
