Squeezed between the disappointing data on Chinese GDP in the third quarter, with no sign that the Asian energy crisis will soon ease and also weighed down by fears of inflation after the robust retail sales figure released Friday by the US, for EU stock exchanges and expected a week start on par. Hong Kong coal futures jumped 9% this morning, which means the Chinese energy crisis has returned to the fore in investors’ minds. A rise that has dragged oil prices. In addition, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned over the weekend that the bank “must act” to curb inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, after Wall Street posted a strong performance on Friday (the S&P 500 rose 0.75%, the Nasdaq gained 0.50% and the Dow Jones jumped 1.10%) on the back of an unexpected rally. of US retail sales (+ 0.70% for September, well above the 0.20% expected), US yields have strengthened across the curve (T-Bond currently returns 1.605%, + 0.029).
This morning, US futures are quiet in Asia, while Far East stock exchanges are pricing in lower-than-expected growth in Beijing’s economic growth: GDP increased in the third quarter by 4.9% year on year compared to + 5.2% in the consensus (slowed from + 7.9% in the previous quarter) and industrial production missed the projections, rising by 3.1% in September compared to the consensus of + 4.5% and + 5.3% in August. Close to the close Nikkei marks -0.24%, Shanghai -0.5% and Hong Kong -0.54%, while for the first time the People’s Bank of China intervened on the Evergrande case, reassuring the markets that the crisis of the giant Chinese real estate will not spread to the rest of the real estate market because the group’s debts to financial institutions are limited.
Still on the macro front, the session promises to be lacking in relevant indicators from the EU, while the US will announce the updates on industrial production and on the utilization rate of plants in September (15:15) and on the Nahb index in October (16: 00). Also on the agenda is the go-ahead from the Italian government to the Budget Planning Document. The speeches of some central bankers are also on the agenda: Quarles (Fed, 11:30 am), Cunliffe (BoE, 4:30 pm) and Kashkari (Fed, 8:15 pm).
In the currency, the euro / dollar fell below 1.15 to 1.158 (-0.15%), the dollar / yen at 114.29, + 0.06% and the cross between pound and dollar and at 1.373, -0 , 17%. Bitcoin is approaching its all-time high of $ 64,895 touched last April.
Meanwhile, energy demand remains robust relative to supply, as evidenced by the fact that overnight Asian markets continued to push up oil prices, which also rose in the wake of the coal rally: the WTI rose by 1.45 % at 83.47 dollars a barrel, Brent is + 1.04% at 85.77 dollars. Gold trades at $ 1,768 an ounce, up marginally by 0.02%, but is back from the best week of May (+ 2%).
In bonds, the BTP-Bund spread is 103.6 basis points unchanged compared to Friday’s closing of 103.8, for an Italian ten-year yield of 0.872%.
In Piazza Affari today is dividend day for four listed companies of the Ftse Mib: Mediolanum (second tranche), Generali (second tranche), Intesa Sanpaolo (year 2019) and Unipol (year 2019). Meanwhile, the Cattolica stock always remains above the Generali offer price, closing on Friday at € 7.13 (+ 0.21%). Finally, focus on Stellantis, which announced that it has entered into a joint-venture with LG Energy Solution for the production of battery cells and modules for North America with the aim of achieving the goal of bringing sales of electric vehicles beyond 40% of the total in the USA in 2030. (all rights reserved)
