Once the conditions precedent for the sale of Autostrade per l’Italia (Aspi) have been completed, the Atlantia stock is resisting sales (+ 0.32% to 18.99 euros currently on the stock exchange). Yesterday the Ministry of Infrastructures communicated to Aspi the registration by the Court of Auditors of the interministerial decree approving the additional Act and the Economic and Financial Plan, already approved with the Cipess Resolution of 22 December 2021. All the conditions precedent of the contract for the sale of the Aspi’s 88% stake in the Consortium led by Cdp Equity have come true. The closing will be finalized within 30 working days.
Therefore, Atlantia collects 8.2 billion euros for the sale of 88% of Aspi and will be able to start the buy-back up to 2 billion approved by the shareholders’ meeting last December. The buy-back plan concerns a maximum number of 125 million shares, equal to 15% of the share capital. The board of directors will be able to proceed with the buy-back both with a partial tender offer with a maximum premium of 20% compared to the previous 5 trading days and through purchases on the market.
In the event of a partial tender offer on the market, considering that Edizione Holding (33%) has already announced that it will not participate in the offer and that it can be assumed that 10% of the shares are not delivered, Equita Sim has estimated that they can be withdrawn more than 20% of the shares for minority shareholders.
Today the SIM raised the target price of the Atlantia share by 7% to 20.5 euros (rating confirmed at buy), updating the prices of listed shareholdings and applying a 5% premium for the significant buy-back that is expected to be carried out even with a probable partial tender offer on the market. “This is clearly positive news; the closure of the Aspi sale definitively removes the uncertainty on the issue”, commented Banca Akros, reiterating the accumulated rating and the target price of 18.50 euros.
In line with expectations, also the confirmation of Carlo Bertazzo as CEO of Atlantia (Edizione Holding presented the list of candidates for the board to be renewed in April and Massolo, former president of Fincantieri, was proposed as the new president in place of Cerchia) , added Bestinver Securities, recalling that the company’s strategic update confirmed a long-term vision focused on growth (15% the average annual growth rate of EBITDA expected over the next three years), sustainability and innovation combined with an interesting remuneration policy, which provides for the distribution of 4.2 billion euros to shareholders over the next three years, corresponding to 27% of the current market capitalization.
In addition, the acquisition of Yunex for 1 billion euros (expected to close by September of this year) and approximately 5 billion euros of financial flexibility following the sale of Aspi, “could lead to the average annual growth rate of the EBITDA. over 20% in the next three years “, Bestinver predicted, which believes that this mix of growth, low risk profile of the business model, sustainability, innovation and shareholder remuneration makes Atlantia particularly attractive as an investment.
Enough to confirm the buy recommendation and the target price between 19 and 20 euros, but in the event of a positive closure of the legal dispute on the Spanish AP7 motorway by Abertis, concluded Bestinver, an additional value for Atlantia of approximately 1.8 would emerge. euro per share (1.5 billion), a value not included in the current valuation. Instead, Mediobanca Securities reiterated the neutral rating and target price at € 19.40, as did Intesa Sanpaolo (hold and target price at € 17.6) which noted that the potential delay in the privatization of ITA Airways is not good news. for AdR, a subsidiary of Atlantia, as the increase in capacity could be postponed with a probable impact on the total number of passengers flying. (All rights reserved)
