The PP has returned to catch air in the first month of the political course. Pablo Casado’s party would be in a position to govern with the other parties of the center and the right: Ciudadanos and Vox. According to a DYM survey for the Joly Group newspapers, Pedro Sanchez’s PSOE falls slightly again. It has not been able to make the 40th Federal Congress of Valencia profitable in an electoral way, where the socialists gave an image of unity, and the extensive vaccination seems to be left behind.
The DYM surveyIt was held from October 20 to 24, once the socialist congress and the national convention of the PP had passed. The results show that the PP could obtain between 120 and 129 seats, with 29.2% support, three points more than the last barometer in September. This is a very appreciable rise, which is largely due to a transfer of votes from Vox. For the first time, the party of Santiago Abascal begins to falter in the face of a drop in the loyalty of its voters.
Evolution of the estimated vote
Pedro Sanchez’s PSOE sees its expectations dropto a bracket that goes from 96 to 100 seats. For the first time it falls below that symbolic level of a hundred seats. Since September, it has lost 1.3 points. The coalition government arrived very well after the summer holidays. The advance of vaccination increased their expectations, but this factor seems to have vanished.
Vox notes a drop of one point in terms of voting intention, and maintains its range between 46 and 50 seats. Now he has 52, and it is the first time that a drop in Abascal’s party has been noted, basically due to the fact that he transfers support to the PP. This is the reason why Vox wants an electoral advance in Andalusia, because it had been noticing that its ceiling was beginning to decrease.
United We Can maintain your expectations, due to the pull of the Minister of Labor, Yolanda Diaz. She is the most valued leader of Spanish politics, and maintains the acronym between 31 and 34 seats. It now has 35. This left-wing party has begun to make its coalition in the government profitable since Pablo Iglesias left the cabinet.
The party that does not raise its head is Ciudadanos . The barometer barely gives him two seats, which puts his own permanence in Congress at risk. More Country, the formation of Inigo Errejon, would obtain from two to three deputies.
Possible government coalitions
The sum of the seats of the PP and Vox, with or without Citizens depending on the end of the fork that is taken, would exceed 176 seats, with which it could governwith an agreement between these parties. Throughout these last weeks of October, the coalition government has once again fallen in its valuation. If in September it had a 4.1, now it drops to 3.9.
When those surveyed are asked who is most qualified to be president, the most valued are Pedro Sanchez and Yolanda Diaz, but both with 37.2% and 36.5%. Married follows closely with 33%. This is another tonic that can be seen in the survey. Casado is not a leader who stands out, but he is close to the best valued, who are also, and in this order, the Minister of Labor and the President of the Government.