Pablo Casado’s PP could govern with an alliance with Vox if general elections were held at this time. The internal crisis opened by the president of the community of Madrid, Isabel Diaz Ayuso, has stopped damaging the electoral expectations of her party. She recovers compared to November and even receives some vote transfer from Vox voters. Together with Santiago Abascal’s party, the PP would govern with an absolute majority and would only need Ciudadanos in the least favorable case of the bracket.
Like every month, DYM has made a barometer for the Grupo Joly newspapers. The December one was carried out between the 15th and 19th of this month, through 1,012 telephone interviews. The situation is similar, the three parties of the center and the right hold a sufficient majority to govern, while the coalition government maintains a low rating of 3.9.
What this poll indicates is that the position of the PP is very solid, it has been in the lead for several months, benefited by the collapse of Ciudadanos, to which DYM still grants the possibility of entering Congress. Vox is shown as an element of a communicating vessel with the PP, without overtaking it and in a position, however, very strong compared to the last elections. It is precisely the solidity of these two parties that maintains the right-wing majority in Congress.
In this way, the PP would achieve between 119 and 129 seats, with an estimated support of 27.6%. The popular ones have risen 1.8 points since November, which is basically what Vox reduces, 1.4. The formation of Santiago Abascal would obtain between 54 and 58 deputies, with which they could either govern together or they would need Ciudadanos, to whom DYM gives two to three seats.
However, the position of the oranges is extremely weak, since the percentage of 4.7% would only ensure that they enter through the large constituencies. Any variation in participation could leave them out of Congress.
Pedro Sanchez’s PSOE remains almost the same as a month ago, with a probability range of 101 to 106 deputies. It is 25.6%. The Government is harmed, on this occasion, by the position of United We Can, which falls by 1.6 points. This is because the management of Vice President Yolanda Diaz distorts the electorate, although she continues to be the leader most valued by the group. This does not mean that the right and center voter gives her a better score, but rather that it is the socialist voters who help her raise her average score.
It is very significant that the socialist voter values ​​Diaz with a 5.8, just two tenths less than Pedro Sanchez, who is given a 6. The PP electorate also gives a similar note to Pablo Casado, a 6.1 . The best rated leader among his voters is Santiago Abascal, although he is one of the worst at a general level.
The average grade obtained by Yolanda Diaz is 4.1, followed by Pedro Sanchez with 4.6. The action of the central government continues to generate a suspense, of 3.9, although it is not the worst achieved throughout this legislature. 52% of those polled suspend the Coalition Executive compared to 46% who approve.
Another of the parties that are guaranteed permanence is Mas Pais, the formation led by Inigo Errejon. DYM grants him two to three seats, with a support of 3.2%.
Despite the popularity of Yolanda Diaz, the Minister of Labor has not yet decided how she will run in the general elections. In principle, United We Can supports her, although she has preferred to seek the support of the former territorial allies of this formation.
