The bills in Berlusconi’s pocket for the race to the Quirinale. Cesare Maffi’s article for Italy Today
Where to find the necessary votes for the election
Silvio Berlusconi would be said to be safe, too sure, of his faithful and also of the entire body of the center-right, outside of which he presumes to find the supports it lacks. Yet it would be appropriate for him to take into account the possible shortcomings already among the theoretical bearers of suffrages.
The numbers (the real ones, not the abstract ones) allow us to see the starting point and to see the complicated possible expansions. The party wanted, founded, directed, owned by the Cav, that is Fi, counts on 79 deputies and 50 senators. At Palazzo Madama it holds the three elected members of the UDC among its members. Far more robust is the ranks of the League: 133 deputies and 64 senators. Weak compared to the polls and the representation of Giorgia Meloni: 37 in Montecitorio and 21 in Palazzo Madama. We can add the five deputies of Noi with Italy and connected. In total: 389 MPs. We want to consider that there has never been a lack of snipers or, as we wish to call them more nobly, free thinkers.
Let’s limit ourselves to 5%: they would be 20. Let’s compress them to 2%: here they are touching 8. The 389 go down to 380. We add up the regional delegates, usually valued at 33, including allies such as the UDC, the Sicilian president and Cambiamo! total comes to 413.
It is necessary to reflect, and it is a very delicate matter, on the minors connected in the Coraggio Italia group (22 deputies) and in the long initials of a component of the mixed group (9 senators from Idea-Cambiamo! -Europeisti-Noi di centro-Noi Campani). In total, these 31 parliamentarians would raise the sum to 444. There is no certainty about their membership, even for the centrist pushes that lead them to look carefully at the Renzians, in turn awaiting decisions. If they sided with the Cav, there would be about seventy elected members to reach the fateful bar of 505. However, if we take into account the sick, those subject to quarantine, those unable to intervene, the number could even drop by a few dozen. Even admitting that almost everyone was present, the support could hardly reach 430.
Berlusconi seems convinced that he will find the 70-80 votes he is missing by resorting to other groups. There are the 12 adherents to the linguistic autonomies, with the South Tyroleans worried about taking home some goads for the territories above Salorno. Altogether there are six deputies attributable to + Europe, Action, Italian radicals, now officially federated. Equally Bruno Tabacci has 6 deputies from the Democratic Center. There are 9 foreign elected representatives from Maie and connected. The left of Alternativa (formerly 5s, formerly Alternativa c’e) gathers 16 deputies. The terms of the ultra-left can be found in Palazzo Madama: Communist Party, Power to the people, Italy of values ‚Äč‚Äčeach have a senator. Three belong to Italexit. There are two senators for life who have refused membership in a group.
This abundance, at least apparent, hides characters that are difficult to recover from the Cav, such as the former president Giorgio Napolitano or Mario Monti. Those on which Berlusconi’s resilience could be exercised are the mavericks, to a large extent elected as pentastellati. The French would define them if, that is, sans etiquette, independent, not qualifiable with a party or even with a case of acronym under which to classify them. Altogether they are close to fifty, because 23 are senators and 23 deputies “not enrolled in any component”. How many could mobilize to support the controversial candidacy of the Cav
And how many to maintain the commitment they had assumed in this sense
However, Berlusconi places solid hope among the parliamentarians of living Italy: 29 deputies and 15 senators. The signals that have arrived so far are largely negative, in any case partial with respect to the theoretical plenum of the followers of Matteo Renzi. In fact, he sails in the political world the proposal of a less liquid center than the current jagged condition, capable of joining above all Iv and Coraggio Italia, with various fringes and singles. Taken together, their compactness would allow them to go to the elections for the Colle with the concrete possibility of pressing for important results.
Article published on ItaliaOggi

Previous articleRemembrance day, two La F programs for the commemoration
Next articleBest ripper 2021