“Italy is one of the countries in which fertility has been at particularly low values for the longest time. For over 35 years, the average number of children per woman is under 1.5, therefore well below the threshold of 2 which allows for an adequate balance between generations “. The consequence
“Our country was the first in the world where the under 15s have become fewer than the over 65s”. This is the incipit with which Alessandro Rosina, professor of Demography at the Catholic University of Milan and author of the book Crisi demographic. Policies for a country that has stopped growing, (Life and Thought, 2022), begins to answer questions about how and why the demographic winter is becoming an urgent issue in our country.
“The new born are about 550 thousand fewer than the current 50-year-olds, 350 thousand fewer than the 65-year-olds, 100 thousand fewer than the 80-year-olds”, underlines Rosina, rattling off numbers. “It should also be considered that denatality tends to feed itself by triggering a process of continuous downward spiral: the few past births reduce the population today, in the age in which a family is formed, with a consequent reduction in future births”. You write that by 2050 the population of working age could shrink by more than 8 million people. What would be the effects on the public welfare system and what economic and social impact
“Denatality progressively erodes the active component which produces wealth in the country and which allows the public welfare system to be financed and operated. The lack of resources, as a consequence of weaker growth and greater spending on items concerning the elderly generations, can make investments towards the new generations less generous – training, active welfare, tools of autonomy and family policies – all the more so in a country with high public debt. The crisis therefore risks progressively binding the country into a path of low development, low opportunities and low well-being ”.Pope Francis spoke about it during the Angelus, President Mattarella also addresses the issue on the occasion of his end-of-year speech, defining the demographic winter “one of the most worrying aspects of our society”. Yet the subject is treated lukewarmly by politics and the media. A few announcements close to the release of Istat data, then silence. Why
“It is the great question of our country that has been removed. When the ISTAT data on ever-decreasing births come out, there is no shortage of headlines of great concern in the media, but from the day after the issue systematically slips to the margins of public debate. Italian politics, more than in the other countries with which we are confronted, has a short gaze, which struggles to go beyond the consensus to be obtained in the next elections “.Short-term calculations are made
“There is a belief that demographic measures do not produce immediate expendable results. However, this is only partially true. For example, the measures that strengthen the autonomy and integration of young people into the world of work have short-term repercussions on the employment of young people as well as favoring the formation of new families and therefore births, which in turn reduces the future imbalances. The same is true for work-family reconciliation policies, such as nursery schools, which immediately favor the employment of women with children but also the choice of having children for employed women. This combination of a short time perspective, low awareness of the importance of family policies for the development of the country, marginalization of policies for young people and women,In your recent essay you talk about the policies necessary for a country that is demographically in decline. There has been at least some trace of these policies in recent years
“It is a fact that in recent decades, including the years preceding the pandemic, Italy has been one of the developed countries that have least implemented effective policies to support families in choosing to have and raise a child. What distinguishes us from the rest of Europe is not a lower number of desired children, but the gap between that number and the one actually achieved. To reduce this gap, it is necessary to move from having been the worst in Europe in the last decade to acting now as the example to follow in the policies to be implemented from 2022 onwards. To do this, the best combination is needed between the use of Next generation Eu resources, the implementation of the integrated measures provided for in the Family act,The demographic crisis will become one of the first points of a future government program
“In reality, in electoral campaigns the demographic theme, of family policies, as well as that of the condition of young people, is never lacking. What is too often missed is the concrete commitment to move from generic promises to the concrete implementation of effective policies. But it is also true that awareness on these issues has increased in recent years and it is no longer possible for politics to just promise. Furthermore, the unanimous consent obtained in Parliament to the law establishing the single and universal allowance must be considered a positive sign. Due to the challenge posed by the demographic crisis, it is necessary that the measures to be implemented are considered a shared priority, implemented and continuously improved, by whoever will be responsible for leading the country “.What do you think of the universal
check “The single and universal check is undoubtedly one of the main positive news on the Italian policy front. While it is true that monetary transfers cannot be considered, in themselves, the reason that leads to having a child, it is equally true that when they are well targeted and commensurate they help reduce uncertainty in the decision-making process of those who want to have one. The success of this important measure will greatly depend on how the measure is actually implemented, gradually strengthened over time and integrated with the other measures envisaged by the Family Act “. And of the expected investments in the NRP, impressions
“One of the limitations of the NRP is the lack of recognition of demographic imbalances as one of the main challenges facing the country. Demographic transition, digital transition and green transition must be approached with a systemic vision and in an integrated way. Thinking of strengthening the technological infrastructure without strengthening the country’s social infrastructure risks weakening the new phase of development in the post-pandemic. However, the choice to invest in childcare services, both as an educational tool and as a reconciliation tool between work and family, should be welcomed. The target set by the European Union was to reach at least 33% coverage in the 0-2 year range in 2010. Ten years later Italy is still a long way off, with a percentage of 26%. The objective now to be set is to begin a process of strengthening the nests on the Italian territory that will lead by 2030 not only to reach the 2010 target, but also towards the best European experiences on this front. France and Sweden have a coverage of more than 50% “.There is a neologism, “dejuvenation”, which he coined to describe the loss of change and growth.“Italy, more than other countries, is experiencing an unprecedented and profound process of“ dejuvenation ”, that is, a structural reduction in the quantitative presence of young people in the population and in society. Paradoxically, this quantitative reduction is also associated with a qualitative public disinvestment, or a lack of spaces, tools and opportunities, which impoverish the life paths of young people and weaken their role in the processes of change and production of well-being. As regards the items concerning training, orientation, employment services, housing policies, research, development and innovation, for too long the incidence on the gross domestic product has been lower than the European average for decades. The consequence is a high percentage of NEETs (young people who do not study and do not work),You recalled in an article that Italy has the record in Europe of young adults who find themselves in this condition – Neither in Employment or in Education or Training – they do not work, they are trained. What to do
“Change the development strategy for the country. Beyond the current levels of unemployment and underemployment what weighs on young people, in fact, and above all not feeling included in growth processes, of being included in a path that over time allows them to demonstrate their worth and to see their your commitment and your value. It should be considered that in our country, compared to the other economies with which we are confronted, the greater the gain in terms of employment that could be obtained from better training and a more efficient use of human capital. Therefore, a plan is needed that will gradually succeed in bringing the key indicators of the school-to-work transition and the enhancement of the human capital of new entrants to the European average at least.
