“Out of time”. This is how Diego Della Valle defined the prospect of creating an all-Italian luxury hub yesterday, on the occasion of the conference held yesterday at the IULM University in Milan. The president and founder of Tod’s stated that he does not see prospects and material on the horizon for the aggregation of Made in Italy companies, since the typical tradition of the Bel Paese of merging ownership and management makes it difficult to give up control. To this must be added the scarce contribution of Italian investment banks, which are not very active in stimulating consolidation as, however, has been done in France by “large institutions like Lazard”.
In this way, according to the former owner of Fiorentina, Italian companies have become prey to the French luxury empires, but not all evil comes to harm. “As a director of LVMH”, Della Valle said, “I have seen many acquisitions, such as those of Fendi, Bulgari, Loro Piana” and all these companies have received “great benefits” from a group that has “respected and increased value. of brands, maintained production chains in Italy, involved families and made financial strength available “. Della Valle had already in the past indicated LVMH as the natural landing place for Tod’s, when it is decided to sell 65% of the capital held by the Marche family.
Statements that for Equita Sim confirm the idea that Lvmh represents a “natural buyer for the group”, today already in possession of 10% of the capital of Tod’s, “even if we think that an operation on 100% of the company is not very close , given the choice by Diego Della Valle last year to sell only 6.8% “, specifies Equita which on Tod’s has a target price of 47.6 euros, a valuation that” reflects a mix of 50% M&A and 50% fundamentals. On the other hand, however, in terms of fundamentals, “we think that in recent weeks the group’s sales, in addition to being affected by the slowdown in China linked to lockdowns, like other players in the sector, have also seen a slowdown. in Europe, not reported by other players,in conjunction with the deterioration of the geopolitical context, despite the good appreciation shown for the new collections “.
According to Banca Akros experts, the positive statements on LVMH’s acquisitions could bring back speculative appeal on the stock, which today gains 4.82% to 39.98 euros (peaking at 40.28 euros in the first hour since the opening of Piazza Business). In April 2021, the group led by Bernard Arnault, through the subsidiary Delphine, rose from 3.2% to 10% of the capital of Tod’s (with 8% of the voting rights), buying shares at a price of 33 ,1 euro. According to some analysts, there is a 30% probability that the scenario of a takeover at 54.6 euros will materialize, while Banca Akros confirms its neutral view on the stock with a target price of 50 euros.
Analysts from Bestinver Securities also believe that Della Valle’s statements are positive for Tod’s, also focusing on the suspension of all commercial ties with Russia after the invasion of Ukraine reaffirmed yesterday by the president of the group. “We repeat that Tod’s has a marginal exposure to Russia, equal to approximately 0.4-0.6% of the total turnover. Therefore, we do not expect significant impacts” Bestinver analysts wrote confirming the hold recommendation and the target price between 45 and 50 euros. (All rights reserved)
