The descent of the pandemic curve in Italy is definitely confirmed. All major indicators now have a minus sign, including deaths. The pressure on hospitals is decreasing : in the last week there has been a drop of 16.2% in the ordinary wards and 19.9% ​​in the intensive care units . And what emerges from theindependent monitoring by the Gimbe Foundation .
In particular, in the critical areait goes from the peak of 1.717 on January 17th to 896 on February 22nd; in the medical area from the peak of 19,913 on January 31 to 13,076 on February 22. As of February 22, the national employment rate for Covid patients is 20% in the medical area and 9.3% in the critical area. With the exception of Lombardy, the Autonomous Province of Trento and Veneto, all the Regions exceed the 15% threshold in the medical area; 10 Regions go beyond the 10% threshold in the critical area. “A further reduction in daily admissions to intensive care is confirmed – points out Marco Mosti, Operations Director of the Gimbe Foundation – whose 7-day moving average drops to 66 admissions / day compared to 80 in the previous week”
“If the data allow us to look ahead with reasonable optimism, it is not acceptable to take advantage of the end of the state of emergency to confuse the cards: the descent of the fourth wave does not mean endemic circulation of the virus nor, much less, the end of the pandemic . in fact, they represent distortions of reality that confuse the population and risk legitimizing risky decisions “. This is the comment by Nino Cartabellotta , president of the Gimbe Foundation, who in the independent monitoring report on Covid-19 underlines: “Regardless of the end of the state of emergency, at the moment it is impossible to abolish public health measures such as indoor masks andisolation of the positives , essential to allow the complete reopening of all activities “.
” The fourth wave – he concludes – is in full descent phase, with a clear reduction in hospital pressure and deaths. However, 50,000 new cases a day , a 10% positive swab rate and almost 1.3 million cases currently positive show that the circulation of the virus is still quite high “, but above all, urges Cartabellotta,” the gaze must be from now on to next autumnwinter : if a respite is reasonably certain in the coming months, this precious time must be exploited to the fullest for adequate planning. Becausewith the new winter, the awakening from the ‘collective dream’ could be very abrupt “.
With regard to vaccinations , the Gimbe Foundation in its independent monitoring notes that” for a new recall for the general population , further scientific evidence is needed as well as authorization of the regulatory authorities. If the data demonstrate the need for an annual recall, it is likely that priority will be given to the elderly and frail, both because they were more exposed to the risk of severe disease, and because they were the first to receive the booster dose. The latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the UK Health Security Agency confirm Ema’s position : the efficacy of three doses of vaccine against severe disease, despite a slow decline, remains high (approximately 75% after 3 -4 months). In any case, beyond the scientific evidence, a further recall for the general population or for specific categories at risk, must in any case be authorized in advance by
the regulatory authorities “, writes Gimbe .the monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation shows that as of 23 February 83% of the population (no. 49,167,918) has completed the vaccination cycle , but there are 4.9 million vaccinable people who have not yet received even a dose . The number of administrations has decreased in the last week: third doses drop by 34.2% and new vaccinated by 46.8%. 85.4% of the population received at least one dose of the vaccine.

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