The good news continues to accumulate for Pedro Sanchez at the poll. The last knock has come this Tuesday from the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), whose October barometer predicts a large victory for the PSOE in the elections on November 10 with a range that goes from 133 to 150 seats , compared to the 123 he obtained in the April elections, which opens up a range of possibilities for him to form a government looking both to the right, Citizens, and to the left, United We Can.
The PP would come back and obtain between 74 and 81 seats , up to fifteen more than in the elections of April 28, while those of Albert Rivera pThey would lose practically half, with an estimate of 27 to 35 deputies, a bump compared to the 57 that Cs achieved in April, very close to the 66 of the PP.
The Socialists would have an absolute majority with United We Can in the best possible scenario for Pedro Sanchez. The purple coalition would remain in a position similar to that of the previous elections, adding 14.6% and between 37 and 45 seats (compared to the 42 it obtained in the last general elections) , including En Comu and Galicia En Comun.
A rookie: More Country
In this barometer of the CIS there is a rookie, More Country, who wants to become another important factor when it comes to forming a government on the left with his former comrade Pablo Iglesias. Together with Compromis and Equo, the platform led by the former number two of Podemos (who also does not rule out being Sanchez’s minister) would obtain between three and four deputies, very far from the expectations generated in recent weeks, which danced above the ten. One of the consequences of obtaining representation only from Madrid and the Valencian Community is that it would not have its own parliamentary group in Congress. However, Errejon has stuck out his chest this morning and has predicted that the polls will put him in his place on 10-N and that Mas Pais will be “well above” those forecasts, as happened in Madrid when they gave them 7% and I finally collected 15% of the support. “We will have a very large presence that will be decisive in contributing to a majority of the progressive bloc that will later form a progressive government,” he added.
But the panoply of the CIS gives much more of itself: Sanchez could also add with Rivera. And the great coalition (the sum of the first two parties, PSOE and PP) would have up to 231 deputies, well above the absolute majority (176). The orange leader has already gotten rid of that corset that has prevented him from agreeing with Sanchez in recent months. The delicate situation in Catalonia, and perhaps the free fall granted in unison by the pre-election polls, have led him to declare that “whoever wins” will support the formation of a new government.
What spoils the good news of the CIS for the Socialists is that the survey was carried out from September 21 to October 13, that is, the day before the sentence of the process was known , so it is unrelated to the violent disturbances that They have been happening in Catalonia after the Supreme Court ruling. and that the pollIt was also done before the medal thatSanchez wore with the exhumation of Franco, on October 27.
One of the surprises of this barometer is the rapa dust that Vox takes . Various private media surveys are propelling the formation led by Santiago Abascal even to the third parliamentary force, but it would remain, according to the calculations of the institute led by Jose Felix Tezanos, between 14 and 21 seats, with 7.9% of the votes, three points less than in the 28-A elections. In any case, its two great launches in the intention to vote – the furious reaction of the independence movement to the convictions of the process and the amplified departure of the dictator from the Valley of the Fallen – are outside the barometer .
The point is thatthe barometer of the CIS last April, in the prelude to the general elections of 28-A, was very accurate . He pointed out that the PSOE would obtain between 123 and 138 seats –it achieved 123– and the PP between 66 and 76 seats –there were 66–. The CIS also predicted the sorpasso of Ciudadanos over Podemos.
ERC rises, Jxcat falls and the PNV remains
Among the nationalists, ERC would rise slightly, up to a maximum of 18 seats , three more than it currently has, J xCat would lose support again, by keeping a maximum of six deputies, against on April 7 , while the CUP would enter Congress, with one or two deputies .
The PNV would revalidate its current parliamentary group with a maximum of seven seatsand EH-Bildu would rise and could obtain up to five deputies.
Canarian Coalition would stay more or less like this, with between one and two seats, like Navarra Suma, which according to the CIS would keep the two seats it currently has in Congress.
The survey is based on around 17,650 personal interviews conducted in 1,091 municipalities of the 50 provinces.
Pedro Sanchez remains the best valued leader, with four points out of a possible ten, although since July he has lost six tenths (4.3 in September). The socialist leader became the only one approved in years by getting a 5.1 in the May barometer, his trail is closely followed by Pablo Casado with 3.1 points. The leader of the PP achieves one tenth more than Albert Rivera, Alberto Garzon, federal coordinator of the IU -both had 3.2 in September- and Errejon. His former friend Pablo Iglesias gets 2.9 points. The worst rated is Santiago Abascal, with 2.2.
The PSOEIntention to vote directly fell 3.5 points, to 27% of support, according to the CIS barometer prepared between September 1 and 18, before the call for general elections on November 10. It was then the party that descended the most in this variable, but in that barometer the CIS changed the methodology again with respect to the July poll and made a vote estimate that pointed to the Socialists growing and overwhelming their rivals with 34.2 % of the votes if the elections had been held now, doubling the support for the PP , with 17.1%.
The CIS thus broke the path of recent months , when it offered the raw data of direct voting intentions, and returned to the kitchen.
what is the kitchen
The inclusion in the results of the memory of the vote and the political sympathy of the citizens consulted . When someone does not say what they want to vote for or even answers that they do not know what they are going to vote for, the CIS introduces a series of indicators. What they voted for in the last elections (fidelity in the vote), their sympathy for certain parties or other more diffuse indicators to decide a vote such as the fact of being unemployed or not, the grade they give to political leaders is valued. , the memory of vote or their economic situation.
In the July barometer, the PSOE had a direct voting intention of 41.3% before the investiture session, according to the barometer published by the CIS on July 31. The PP was in second place with 13.7%, compared to 13.1% of United We Can and its confluences, and 12.3% of Citizens, which would suffer a sharp decline compared to the previous survey in June. The survey collected direct intention to vote, that is, without further processing of the raw data provided by the respondents in their responses.