“Omicron has been underestimated and it is still early to predict the evolution of the pandemic (and the fourth wave). Net of the emergence of new variants”. The president of the GIMBE Foundation, Nino Cartabellotta , in this interview with Rainews.it, comments on the first Covid data of 2022 without hiding a cautious optimism on the first signs of a slowdown in the contagion race.
“There are still too many unvaccinated– he reiterates – and the government was late in the vaccination obligation with a target conditioned by downward political compromises “. In the face of a significant increase in the first doses,” the real problem is that, of the 2.15 million over 50s, vaccinated, the number of those exempted for pathology is not known. ”And, while he points out that there are still delays in vaccinating children (2.8 million between 5 and 11 years still without a dose), the government criticizes the school for it has not formally closed it. “In fact – he points out – more and more classes go into DAD already from the first positive”.President Cartabellotta, let’s start with the latest data released by GIMBE, the first of 2022: new cases in a week increased by almost 50% and all the indicators, from hospitalizations (+ 31.2%) to intensive care (+20, 5%), up to deaths (+ 37.4%), are in dramatic growth. What do we get from this overview
That we are in the midst of the fourth wave, with a huge number of cases which, after having already sent the local health services into a tailspin, are putting hospital care in difficulty. In fact, despite the high vaccination coverage “cushion” the impact of viral circulation on hospitals, the huge number of positives in continuous growth “meets” a too numerous susceptible population: 2.2 million 0-4 years old who cannot be vaccinated, 8 , 45 million unvaccinated and about 15 million waiting for the third dose. For some days, however, there have been timid signs of a slowdown in the contagion curve: the positive rate of molecular swabs has decreased from 27% to 22%, that of rapid antigenic swabs has stabilized and the growth rate of the curve is slowed down.How the Covid pandemic is moving at the beginning of the year
Responsible for the surge in infections and the Omicron variant or the recently concluded holiday period, which in any case would have produced this effect
The Omicron variant, whose circulation has been largely underestimated , caused a change of gear in the ascent of the infections around 10 December, and then reared up just before Christmas. The increase in social contacts certainly increased viral circulation, but without the Omicron variant we would not have reached nearly 2.8 million new cases in 3 weeks, from December 25 to January 15. The feared peak of the fourth wave, which was expected for mid-January, has not yet been reached. When we get there
At this time of the pandemic, contagion forecasts are unreliable for various reasons. First of all, the “national” peak depends on the different circulation of the virus in 21 regions and autonomous provinces, as well as on the number of their resident population; secondly, because in mid-January the effect of reopening schools and returning to the workplace cannot yet be visible; finally, because there are numerous variables, including the prevalence in each Delta and Omicron variant region, the vaccination and third-dose coverage rate, individual behaviors, any restrictive measures and more.And these days the alarm raised by Italian surgeons on the fact that many diseases, which require urgent interventions, are in danger of being overshadowed due to lack of places in hospitals. He believes this to be the most serious consequence of the occupation of beds in ordinary wards and in intensive care, indirectly caused by those without the vaccine shield
Absolutely yes, a sort of “the dark side of the moon”: not visible in the infamous bulletin, of which very little is said, and above all ignored by the system for assigning colors to the Regions. Which, in order to reduce occupancy rates and avoid the orange zone, increase the availability of beds, especially in the medical area. An elementary accounting device that silently increases the amount of hospital overload and, consequently, the postponement of ordinary services. What, then, among the many numbers monitored by GIMBE, the one that worries you the most and that we should keep under control
The numbers are all relevant because the dynamics of the pandemic are complex and not always predictable. It is obvious that hospitalizations in the medical area and, above all, in intensive care have a greater media impact and return the picture of the most serious consequences of Covid. But in a pandemic, we must also look at the “state of health” of the local and hospital health services, because their overload slows down to the point of hindering the provision of all services, both those necessary to deal with the pandemic and those intended for non-patients. Covid.The association of Italian pediatricians has certified that the virus is spreading among the youngest, with an increase in hospitalizations even among the under 18s, despite – and fortunately – the latter are able to overcome the disease more easily. How should we read the data on vaccines in the age group 5-11 years
Almost 970 thousand administrations were carried out in one month: 18.9% of the vaccinable audience received the first dose and 3.7% have already completed the vaccination cycle. But with enormous regional differences: Puglia administered at least 1 dose to 39.6% of the audience and the autonomous province of Bolzano 11.1%. Overall, in the 5-11 age group, over 2.8 million children are without even a dose: that is, if the green light for the vaccine in this age group was to be the extra weapon to stem the circulation of the virus in schools, as well as than to prevent serious forms, surely we are very late. What do we get from the first data of 2022 on the unvaccinated and, in parallel, on those who access the first dose
Compared to the vaccinated audience, there are still over 8.27 million people who have not even received a dose. Of these, 2.8 million in the 5-11 age group and 781 thousand in the 12-19 age group have an impact on school safety and 2.15 million over 50s are at risk of serious illness. In 2022 we have already exceeded one million new vaccinates. The Government has introduced the vaccination obligation for people over 50: how do you judge this measure Is it
sufficient or should you have dared more ?
Is it producing significant effects?
The GIMBE Foundation, since the beginning of the autumn season, has continuously reiterated the advisability of the vaccination obligation for all over 18. The Government’s decision was late and, with a target conditioned by political compromises lower than the wishes of the various majority political forces. Regarding the effects, from January 6 there was an increase in the number of new vaccinated: from January 1 to January 5 they were on average 6 thousand per day for a total of 30,701; from 6 to 15 January on average 17 thousand a day, for a total of 173,860, with a trend that continues to grow. But the real problem is that, of the 2.15 million over-50s who are not vaccinated, the number of people exempted for disease is not known. An increase in the use of smartworking is preferable to increasingly coercive measures
In conditions of enormous viral circulation it is necessary to reduce social contacts: smartworking is one of the measures that can be implemented without resorting to more severe restrictions. But in the absence of official data, it is impossible to estimate the impact, also because in fact it was liquidated with the simple recommendation to “make the best use of the flexibility already allowed by the rules in force”. Last month, Austria and Germany experienced the “lockdown for unvaccinated”, achieving good results in fighting the spread of the virus. Such a measure could also serve us or, rather, would only exacerbate the distrust of the vaccine of those who are already starting from positions of skepticism
The methods of communication of these “extraordinary” results were not accompanied by data that allow an evaluation of the effectiveness of this measure. That is, it is impossible to distinguish its real effect from political propaganda. In any case, beyond the denomination, I don’t see big differences with our Super Green pass. We come to the school: part of the principals and some regional presidents have asked Minister Bianchi to resume school activities in DAD, causing yet another clash with the government, including appeals to the TAR and suspensions. Do you think that, with this data, teaching in the classroom is safe
During a pandemic, school must be the last thing to close and the first to reopen. From a political point of view, the government has followed this line, but in fact it has not closed anything to limit the circulation of the virus. And, in the absence of structural interventions on schools (aeration, ventilation), the real problem is not safety, but the possibility for schools not to resort to DAD, given the very high number of infections, even among school staff. That is, the school remains formally in attendance, but in the real world more and more classes go to DAD. Also because it is difficult to comply with the new rules on quarantines, moreover due to a lack of tampons. And the principals, to protect themselves, implement the DAD already from the first positive and not from the third.We are heading towards the second anniversary of the start of the pandemic, with the comforting data of vaccines making a difference. What he predicts for the months ahead
With a virus that continues to surprise us with its ability to circumvent obstacles, it is impossible to make medium-term predictions. In the absence of “surprises”, in the coming weeks we should probably see the descent of infections, but to see a reduction in the impact on hospitals and especially on deaths it will take some time. And with the arrival of spring, the fourth wave should gradually run out. I repeat, net of the emergence of new variants. How do you think we are moving on the immunization front in poor countries, where new variants of the virus are more likely to arise
Unfortunately, we are very late, both because the current production of vaccines is insufficient, and because in some countries (for example, South Africa), despite the availability of doses, the organizational capacity and vaccination hesitation represent further obstacles. 2022 could be the year in which the virus will become endemic
It feels like making predictions about when we will be able to say goodbye to masks and distancing
No one can make reliable predictions on the timing of endemization of a virus that in a year has generated three variants (Alpha, Delta, Omicron) which have put the most advanced health systems in difficulty, despite the availability of a very effective vaccine on serious disease. Consequently, indoor masks and spacing will accompany us for a while longer.One last curiosity: after the social confrontation he had with Povia, he was most affected.He
knows how he is
doing well, but he does not change his ideas on the Covid vaccine.
