The hybrid war of migrants waged by Belarus against Europe risks provoking an escalation with unpredictable outcomes. The situation, already very tense on the Minsk-Brussels line, has worsened after images circulated of hundreds of refugees marching towards the Polish border. Warsaw refused their entry and said it was ready to defend its borders, but the EU also promised a “united” reaction to the attempts of “destabilization” by the regime of Alexander Lukashenko.
This year Poland recorded over 23,000 illegal entries of migrants from the east, almost half of which in October. A sign that Belarus is increasing pressure on Europe, in retaliation for sanctions. Never before, however, has there been an exodus apparently so planned: the media in Minsk showed a column of about 500 refugees, escorted by Belarusian border guards, along a highway from the border town of Bruzgi and towards a forest bordering the Polish region of Podlaskie.
Most from the Middle East, with families and children, chanting “We want to go to Germany”. A similar scene was seen only on the Greek-Macedonian border, at the height of the migratory crisis in 2016. Arriving at the Polish border, some of the migrants tried to cross but an impressive array of Polish police was waiting for them. The Warsaw authorities later made it known that they had rejected the attempted illegal entry and accused Minsk of wanting to cause “a serious accident”. Defense Minister Mariausz Blaszczak was even clearer: “We are ready to defend the border”.
Being able to count on 12 thousand soldiers deployed in the area. Minsk, on the other hand, denied a direction of this migratory wave, reproaching in Warsaw “an inhuman attitude and indifference towards refugees”. In Brussels, the intransigence of the Polish ultra-conservative government towards migrants has never been digested, so much so that the EU has rejected Warsaw’s request to bear the costs of a border wall.
At the same time, the EU institutions are aware that we need to join forces against Minsk. Because the Lukashenko regime, a Commission spokesman accused, is setting up a “desperate attempt to exploit people to destabilize the EU and the values ​​we support”. The issue will be addressed “urgently” next week by foreign ministers and at this point new sanctions are not ruled out. Certainly, “Europe will take a stand together” assured German government spokesman Steffen Seibert, describing the Belarusian regime as a “migrant smuggler” conducting “hybrid attacks” against the EU.
In Brussels, attention is also paid to the NATO headquarters. Because migratory flows are “putting pressure on our allies Lithuania, Latvia and Poland,” an official explained. Assuring that NATO “is ready to further assist allies and maintain security in the region”. Consultations with the Alliance were called for by the opposition leader in Warsaw, former EU Council president Donald Tusk. In the escalation between the EU and Belarus, in reality, it is mainly migrants who pay. Briefly rejected by the Polish police (and by groups of young nationalists who patrol the border “in defense of the Slavic identity”), while the Belarusian border guards refuse to let them go back.
