Domenico Maria Bruni’s analysis, taken from a Policy Brief of the LUISS School of Government, on the victory of the Conservatives in the elections of 6 May. A strategic and communicative change of the Tories emerges (as well as a persistent Labor crisis)
The Conservatives, as confirmed by what happened in the Hartlepool college and in the local administrations, have recomposed the line-up to the right of the center, thanks to the eclipse of UKIP and Brexit Party. All this while the political alignment to the left of the center is instead fragmenting: in the face of a decline in Labor, the Lib-Dems hold and the Greens advance. This is a dynamic that could be repeated in the next electoral competitions.
More generally, the positive electoral result of the Conservatives in all the territories of the United Kingdom is explained by their ability to intercept a request for “protection” (with respect to certain negative effects of globalization) widespread in the electorate. Not only that: starting from the referendum on Brexit, it has become clear that there is an identity and cultural discourse that also counts for a large part of the country. As a result, the Tories have radically revised their image, of course, but also their strategy and their political offer. As confirmed in these hours by the traditional speech to Parliament with which Queen Elizabeth II outlines the priorities of the Johnson government (May 11), the Conservatives have reshaped, for example, their economic policy, becoming proponents of a more decisive public intervention in the economy – on infrastructure, health and housing, for example – especially in support of areas such as the Midlands or the North of England that have suffered the most from the impact of economic globalization. It is no coincidence that Prime Minister Johnson now intends to switch from the slogan “Jabs! Jabs! Jabs! ”, Ie“ Vaccines! Vaccines! Vaccines! ”, To“ Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! ”,“ Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! “. Such a cultural and political change could also have consequences on the Scottish referendum game, consolidating the consensus for the Conservatives who are rooted in the south of Scotland, in economically and socially linked territories to the north of England, thus shifting the balance in favor of the unionists. for example – especially in support of areas such as the Midlands or the North of England which have suffered most from the impact of economic globalization. It is no coincidence that Prime Minister Johnson now intends to switch from the slogan “Jabs! Jabs! Jabs! ”, Ie“ Vaccines! Vaccines! Vaccines! ”, To“ Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! ”,“ Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! “. Such a cultural and political change could also have consequences on the Scottish referendum game, consolidating the consensus for the Conservatives who are rooted in the south of Scotland, in economically and socially linked territories to the north of England, thus shifting the balance in favor of the unionists. for example – especially in support of areas such as the Midlands or the North of England which have suffered most from the impact of economic globalization. It is no coincidence that Prime Minister Johnson now intends to switch from the slogan “Jabs! Jabs! Jabs! ”, Ie“ Vaccines! Vaccines! Vaccines! ”, To“ Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! ”,“ Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! “. Such a cultural and political change could also have consequences on the Scottish referendum game, consolidating the consensus for the Conservatives who are rooted in the south of Scotland, in economically and socially linked territories to the north of England, thus shifting the balance in favor of the unionists. It is no coincidence that Prime Minister Johnson now intends to switch from the slogan “Jabs! Jabs! Jabs! ”, Ie“ Vaccines! Vaccines! Vaccines! ”, To“ Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! ”,“ Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! “. Such a cultural and political change could also have consequences on the Scottish referendum game, consolidating the consensus for the Conservatives who are rooted in the south of Scotland, in economically and socially linked territories to the north of England, thus shifting the balance in favor of the unionists. It is no coincidence that Prime Minister Johnson now intends to switch from the slogan “Jabs! Jabs! Jabs! ”, Ie“ Vaccines! Vaccines! Vaccines! ”, To“ Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! ”,“ Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! “. Such a cultural and political change could also have consequences on the Scottish referendum game, consolidating the consensus for the Conservatives who are rooted in the south of Scotland, in economically and socially linked territories to the north of England, thus shifting the balance in favor of the unionists.
Finally, the strengthening effect that this vote will have on Johnson’s leadership should not be underestimated. In Italy we have often limited ourselves to portraying the current Prime Minister as a somewhat folkloric character, ignoring some aspects of greater substance. Johnson has always been “folkloric” and despite this he was twice mayor of London, he won the election in Westminster in his college, finally the leadership of the Tories. In short, for the British Johnson is not a “discovery” that came from who knows where. Furthermore, his past as mayor has made him develop significant ability to “listen” to the electorate. Finally, despite being decisive in completing the divorce from the European Union, Johnson is not a “Thatcherian”,
The protracted crisis of Labor, in opposition at the national level since 2010, also deserves some in-depth analysis. One could start from the words of a Labor exponent, Khalid Mahmood, the first Muslim to be elected in Westminster in 2001, who resigned from the Shadow Cabinet in mid-April last year stigmatizing “the removal of Labor from the working class” and the transformation of the party. now too concentrated on “London-centric issues” and made up of “brigades of fighters for social justice of a ‘woke’ matrix”. In other words, feeding on identity politics, a party that expresses only minorities has condemned itself to become a minority in the country. Certainly the long wave of the post-Tony Blair crisis (Prime Minister from 1997 to 2007) has not yet passed: no identity-political project has emerged on the left capable of reuniting social and economic interests, and then keeping them together. As far as remains of the “working class”, or in any case of that part of the population that grew up with a mentality of that type, which has experienced the decline of a productive and social model on its own skin, nothing positive has been offered. It is highly symbolic, in this regard, that Labor lost control of County Durham after nearly 100 years, the historic place of miners’ memory, the quintessential 20th-century British working class. The current Labor Secretary, Keir Starmer, has staked the movement left a la Jeremy Corbyn, but the management of the pandemic forced him to choose between the role of the “patriotic opponent” and that of the “whatever opponent”. Starmer chose the first path, but then he didn’t offer a positive vision and hope for the future. Remedying this, in the coming months, is the most difficult challenge for Labor, however the poor management of the first post-election days does not seem like a good viaticum.
