How the world revolves around Ukraine. Role and expectations of the USA, China, India, Israel and Turkey. The point of Gianmarco Volpe, the global desk chief of Agenzia Nova
In Washington, Joe Biden has a problem: Mid-term elections are in November, and the Democrats are almost likely to lose control of Congress. On the Ukrainian crisis, the White House has so far had the merit of coordinating every move with the Europeans (it was not obvious, given the precedents) and this has contributed to making the Atlantic Alliance more cohesive than, perhaps, it has ever been. On the other hand, of course, Biden did not take the opportunity to shake off the image of a weak leader. Ahead of the November vote, the Republicans will attack him and try to force the president’s hand into taking an even more assertive stance towards Russia. There is a pear tree. The republican front, also in terms of war in Ukraine, is anything but compact: the Trumpian base has overwhelming Putinian sympathies and marked isolationist tendencies (follow Tucker Carlson, host of Fox News, for clarification); the conservative leaders of Congress play the part of the hawks (Lindsey Graham, who is also a great friend and confounder of Trump, has quietly suggested to the Russians to kill Putin). Biden will probably decide to adopt new sanctions against Russia, trying to keep the risk of an escalation at acceptable levels. But he will not be the one to take on the burden of a diplomatic initiative. Biden will probably decide to adopt new sanctions against Russia, trying to keep the risk of an escalation at acceptable levels. But he will not be the one to take on the burden of a diplomatic initiative. Biden will probably decide to adopt new sanctions against Russia, trying to keep the risk of an escalation at acceptable levels. But he will not be the one to take on the burden of a diplomatic initiative.
In Beijing, Xi Jinping has a dilemma.He too has an important appointment in the fall, the twentieth congress of the Communist Party, on the occasion of which he will become the only Chinese leader who has been entrusted with the post of general secretary for three terms. He is unlikely to attack Taiwan before that time. Instead of pushing China to action, as many observers have suggested, the conflict in Ukraine is encouraging Xi to be more cautious. The Chinese president did not fail to record the very harsh Western sanctioning response against Putin, perhaps so harsh because it contains a message for Beijing. Nor will he have escaped the resistance of the Ukrainians on the ground, the same that in a much more complicated tactical context could be encountered by the invading Chinese army in Taiwan. In short, for the landing on the island it will take time and it will not be possible to repeat the logistical errors and the underestimation of the enemy committed by the Russians. It is a time that Tsai Ing-wen will use to continue arming Taiwan to the teeth. Everyone in Taipei knows that the Chinese will come sooner or later, and when they do, they won’t be able to throw candy at them.
In New Delhi Narendra Modi and in a very uncomfortable position.The rivalry and problems on the border with China have pushed India, in recent years, ever closer to the United States. But the country has always had privileged economic and military relations with Russia: this is why it did not explicitly condemn the invasion of Ukraine, did not join the international sanctioning campaign and abstained from the UN General Assembly. Modi is receiving strong pressure from Biden to take a clear position and has certainly noticed how the political balance in his region is rapidly changing (the colleague of the rival Pakistan Imran Khan, a great friend of China, was received in the Kremlin by Putin on the day of the invasion). But, perhaps, he wants to take advantage of his particular position (and the only important partner of the USA to remain neutral) to propose his own mediation.
In Jerusalem, Naftali Bennett has serious credentials to mediate.On Saturday he was in Moscow, previously he spoke with Scholz. Israel has historical, religious and cultural links with the Jewish communities of Russia and Ukraine. He also collaborated with Moscow in complex situations (such as in Syria, where the Russians were on the same side of the Lebanese Hezbollah movement that was instead bombed by the Jewish state) and wants to prevent the conflict from going as far as Odessa, where about 30,000 Jews live. (they were 200 thousand before the Second World War). Bennett and a leader of the religious right, these are matters to which his electorate pays particular attention. However, timing plays against the Israeli premier: it is possible that Putin is already ready to sit down – seriously – at the negotiating table
If so, it would mean that Russia views the Ukrainian campaign as a lost cause. I’m afraid it’s soon.
In Ankara, a separate chapter for the position of Recepire Tayyip Erdogan, the most acrobatic of all.Erdogan talks to Putin, blocks Russian ships in the Bosphorus, sells drones to Ukrainians but (unique among NATO leaders) does not join the sanctions against Russia. A mess. The Turkish president is an isolated leader in extreme difficulty, the Turkish lira is falling almost as much as the ruble, inflation gallops and elections are next year. It is reasonable that, having exhausted the thrust of military action in Syria, Erdogan wants to take advantage of a conflict on the other side of the Black Sea to become a protagonist again. But Turkey is hardly a disinterested spectator, and its leader does not have the international credibility to attempt meaningful diplomatic action.
(Extract from a post published on Gianmarco Volpe’s Facebook page)

Previous articlefastest dog breeds in the world
Next articleGetting your driving license online is possible, this is what you have to do