All the proposals on the economy by Armin Laschet and Olaf Scholz, the two main candidates for the office of Chancellor of Germany. The article by Pierluigi Mennitti
A duel on the economy, confined to the two candidates who according to the polls really have the possibility of becoming chancellor: Olaf Scholz and Armin Laschet. The Handelsblatt put it on its feet through a double interview that today occupies the opening of the newspaper. And that puts the two main contenders facing each other and both facing the voters. THE ROLE OF THE MARKET
It was probably a certain lightness on the fundamental principles of the economy (together with some gaffes and fears that the ecological change was weighing too much on the pockets of citizens) that consumed Annalena Baerbock’s ambition to become the first green chancellor in German history. A sentence, pronounced in one of the three-way televised comparisons, and remained in the head of those who work in the world of economics: “The market doesn’t care about people”. Perhaps not even a candidate from Linke (the radical left) would have thought of saying a similar phrase today. It certainly does not occur to the aspiring Social Democrat, who at the moment is also the finance minister of the current government: “The market is efficient and it is the basis of our well-being,” he told Handelsblatt, “but it needs rules for its development “.
The mantra of the social market economy, shared by almost all the German parties but of which the CDU boasts a sort of copyright since Ludwig Erhard, also contains the more liberal demands of Armin Laschet, who was imbued with a solid Catholic background. . “The market frees up energy, and we operate within a social framework”, he explains to the Handelsblatt. ARMIN LASCHET’S LAISSEZ-FAIRE
However, especially in recent days, perhaps also to recover some consensus that slipped towards the liberals, Laschet has returned to present himself as a purist of the market, reviving the chapter on modernization from the more than 300 pages of the electoral program. A decade of profound transformations, which he would like to undergo in Germany in order to make up for the delay accumulated towards the most competitive countries in terms of digitization and innovation.
The watchword is “de-bureaucratization”: freeing businesses and the economy from too many constraints, freeing up energy, speeding up procedures, speeding up authorizations. A return to laissez-faire, also suggested by the entry into the electoral team of the family liberalist, the prodigal son Friedrich Merz, a message that Merkel’s CDU had relegated to the attic, also complicates the bad reception among the voters of the liberal program with which Merkel herself faces in her first electoral campaign. “But Silicon Valley was not born with bans”, continues the conservative candidate, “we must clearly accelerate the steps of research and development of important technologies of the future into successful business models”.
Laschet promises to give impetus to the digitalization road map, centralizing strategies and application tools in a dedicated ministry, in direct contact with the chancellor. “Chefsache”, the boss’s business, say the Germans. SCHOLZ, INVESTMENTS IN THE CERTAINTY OF STANDARDS
A mix of public and private investments and Olaf Scholz’s blend to push Germany on the path of modernization and industrial transition towards climate neutrality. The issue is also dear to the Social Democrat, the country’s delay in relation to the most fierce competitors is present to everyone. And to private individuals, however, that the greatest task will fall: “Encourage private investments within clear regulatory conditions”, and Scholz’s creed, seared by recent banking events (Wirecard above all) which today see him on the defensive on charges of negligence.
“You will be able to invest and you will be able to increase your skills, without fearing that after two years the rules and conditions will change”, he tells the industrialists through their reference newspaper.
With less emphasis, the speeding up of bureaucratic procedures and also in the SPD program: “The next government must create favorable conditions for the simplification of authorization procedures”. TAXES, MINIMUM WAGE AND DEBT CAP
A profound tax reform, promises Armin Laschet, indicating tax relief for medium and small incomes. The increase in the minimum wage from the current € 9.60 to 12, and Olaf Scholz’s commitment to restore dignity to workers and increase internal consumption, an ever-weak pillar of the German economy. Proposals contradicting the fact that both candidates reaffirm compliance with the debt ceiling rule, which is in the Constitution and therefore would require a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag to be amended. Laschet claims it out of conviction, Scholz more out of realism, even if he admits: “In reality, the government already invests a lot, the problem is that there is little funding.”
Returning to the tax authorities, the CDU categorically excludes tax increases in the next legislature (Angela Merkel already did so in the past, but then things went differently), the SPD proposes an increase in the rates for high incomes, the reintroduction of the tax on assets and a reduction for medium and small incomes. EUROPE, LONG LIVE THE STABILITY PACT. WITH SOME DISTINGUISHINGS
The European stability pact is untouched. In the end, both candidates recognize themselves in the traditional line of German European politics. The mutual accusations of the last few days are the result more of the animosity of the election campaign than of a real different vision. Variations on the theme can be seen between the lines. Laschet has put aside the pro-European side that characterized him until a few months ago, following the path traced by his “hard-liners”, Soder and Merz: no loosening of limits and rules, the Germans will not pay for the weaknesses of the systems of the South Europe. You forget those at home, starting with the banking ones, but remembering them in the election campaign is not good and you can be sure that, if the polls were better, Laschet would have remained in the pro-European tones that were most suited to him.
Scholz must defend himself from the accusations that he is the Trojan horse of the eurobons and limits his enthusiasm for the new European phase born with the Recovery Fund (he spoke of “Hamilton moment”) to the fact that the EU will be able to generate autonomous revenues for its own fund: “For an EU of 400 million citizens it is a question of guaranteeing 15 billion a year on a budget of 170 billion euros, and something that is well feasible”. POLLS: SPD FORWARD, UNION IN RECOVERY
The polls at the beginning of last week confirm the SPD’s advantage, but also signal a recovery in the Union (CDU-CSU). The distance has been reduced by one to two points, depending on the polls and the margin of advantage of the Social Democrats and now in a range of between 3 and 5 points. The polarization on the Scholz-Laschet confrontation benefits both large parties and penalizes smaller ones, including Greens and liberals, and this trend is likely to strengthen over the past seven days. In short, the game is still open.
